Solver/GTO common overfolding spots
Posted by L131
Posted by
L131
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Low Stakes
Solver/GTO common overfolding spots
After running a few sims , I see that there are many spots that the PRF is overfolding where I assumed it would not be . Example : Co vs bb on 7s 7c 5d rainbow. The PFR cbets 1/3rd , BB calls. Turn 2h , BB checks and PRF checks back . River 3d , BB leads out for 3/4th and PRF folds 56% of range not meeting MDF.
I know that MDF doesn't apply in a lot of spots , but i read/saw somewhere from a coach comment/live play (unsure where) that the PRF should almost always meet MDF on the river vs a lead if he has the range advantage and has option to check/ cbet on the turn. Also seen this trend in 3bet pots as well .
My guess would be that solver sees that betting on the turn with stronger hands is higher EV than checking strong hands to avoid overfolding vs a river lead.
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Solver is GTO plus btw
Not considering rake, he starts to print if you fold greater than 43% of time (risk/risk+reward or .75/.75 + 1). I am not in front of pc and I could be having a brain fart, but 56% defend seems just about spot on.
PRF is folding 56% of the time , defending only 44%. MDF is about 57%-56% for 3/4 bet.
I agree, I read it wrong.
What are your thoughts on why solver defends so little?
Villain is turning hands with showdown value into a bluff therefore IP should defend less than mdf.
I just solved this myself, OOP has 63% equity on the river, so the IP does not have a range advantage. IP is indeed betting turn with most made hands and checking a lot with non-made hands, whereas OOP is going to be folding a lot of crap on the flop and therefore his range ends up being stronger on the river.
Yeah, IP range gets so much weaker when he checks back turn. I figure it's a combination of texture and line that makes this a spot to overfold. Is that your assesment too?
Zinom replied the correct answer.
bc turning hands with showdown value into bluffs requires that EV (bet and make better ahnds fold) > EV (check and win a lot of the times at shwodown). In order to make that EV of bluffing higher and OOP's bottom of range hands indifferent between bluffing and checking, IP has to overfold. Otherwise OOP couldn't have a bluffing range since he would prefer to check his bottom of range and get to showdown with it.
Meant on flop that IP has range advantage . And agree likely reason to overfolding is the range advantage , along with Zinom's answer (which is result of range advantage).
Safe to say on most rivers with same line taken in 3bet pots and 2bet pots , that overfolding is a big trend?
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