Simple Turn Spot

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Simple Turn Spot

Blinds: $0.50/$1.00 (6 Players) MP: $187.80
CO: $142.94
BN: $100.00 (Hero)
SB: $140.09
BB: $108.58
UTG: $187.76
SB is a fish. 49/15 over 80 hands and quite poor postflop.
CO is likely a reg. 30/19 over 200 hands. 40% (10/25) raise first in from CO.
BB is likely a reg also. 27/21 over 160 hands. 17% (4/23) 3bet from bb, 4% (1/23) squeeze.
Preflop ($1.50) Hero is BN with J K
2 folds, CO raises to $3.00, Hero calls $3.00, 2 folds
I call pre hoping that SB calls as well.
Flop ($7.50) 9 9 Q
CO bets $3.72, Hero calls $3.72
Turn ($14.94) 9 9 Q Q
CO checks, Hero bets $8.00, CO folds
I auto bet this. Thinking about it now, I'm not sure.

Pros:
We leave our range uncapped.
Betting turn will likely prevent us from being bluffed on the river.
We need some bluffs in our range and this blocks J9, QJ, KQ, JJ and KK.

Cons:
He never folds a better hand (TT+, 9x, Qx). Not sure about Ax since we can have some counterfeited hands like 88- and we have draws.
Everything that folds we had beat anyways.

Thoughts? Am I over thinking this?

Thanks!
Final Pot BN wins $14.27
Rake is $0.67

3 Comments

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mygameispoke 10 years, 4 months ago

you get him to fold ax I suppose, but I don't like a bet here as I agree with you. Most of the range that he is folding is the range that you had beat anyways.

JoINrbs 10 years, 4 months ago

Probably bet turn and river sometimes to get him off better and check down sometimes, don't bet only turn with this combo.

tonic1223 10 years, 4 months ago

Def betting the turn and probably river. Villain has plenty of Ax or random gutters himself that might fold once he checks and we fire twice. Besides trying to assume what villain will do, I'm not to thrilled trying to take my K high to showdown here. I'd rather check back AT since we win at showdown more with it.

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