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simple math question

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simple math question

suppose hero is facing a preflop ALL-in with AQcc, and somehow he knows his opponet plays this way if and only if he holds 67ss, or AA. each player started the hand with 100bb stacks, there is 40bb in the pot , and it would cost hero 80bb to call. what is his play?

solution 1- first the EV of folding is 80bb, (in this case, we r doing the EV caculation by the expected stack by the end of the decision node). Villain holds 76CC, 76HH, 76SS, 76DD, and 3 combos of AA since we blocking one A, if hero calls, he will run into AA 3times and 67s 4times, he is equity against that range is 40.49%. there will be 200bb in the pot if we call, so 200x40.49% = 80.97bb 80.97>80, so its call.

solution 2- we r risking 80 to win 120, so 80/120=2/3 how do i caculate how often do i have to be right or how much equity do we need to make the call. i did it two ways. 2/3=66% and 3/2+3=60%, and i think they r both wrong, if we need more than 60% of equity to call, then clearly this is a fold but i know for a fact that solution 1 is correct, (from a book) pretty dumb question but im really confused here.. thanks guys!!

4 Comments

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sauloCosta10 9 years, 9 months ago
  • The EV of folding is always 0 (you never lose or win money when you fold). What is true is that we don't lose 80 bbs when we fold, but EV = Expected Value = the amount, usually measured in bb/100, of money we expect to win in average every time we make a certain decision.

  • This is not how you calculate pot odds. The correct math is 120/80 = 1.5:1 = 1/2,5 = 40%. We need more than 40% equity to call profitably. Since we have 40,49%, we should call. But this call is going to be almost break even.

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OttoPilot 9 years, 9 months ago

Yeah, the first solution is correct.

The way I do these calculations is by comparing What We Win to What We Lose and then determining how often each happens.

So in this case WWW = 120
WWL = 80

Since we have 40% equity or so, WWW = 40% * 120 = 48
WWL = 60% * 80 = 48

WWW - WWL = 48 - 48 = 0, so the EV of calling is 0.

Hope that makes sense.

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