Showdown?
Posted by Simplifier
Posted by
Simplifier
posted in
Low Stakes
Showdown?
Blinds: $0.05/$0.10 (6 Players)
SB: $10.00 (Hero)
BB: $10.00
UTG: $4.00
MP: $11.64
CO: $17.97
BN: $10.00
BB: $10.00
UTG: $4.00
MP: $11.64
CO: $17.97
BN: $10.00
UTG is a fish who just joined the table posting the BB from UTG, playing 53/1 on 101 hands. The CO looks like a reg , on 119 hands playing , 27/22 , agg factor of 2.1 , CO rfi 27, flop cbet 71, fv3b 14, 3bet 6, fvcbet in 3b pot 0(3).
Preflop
($0.15)
Hero is SB with
A
J
, , , , , ,
I assume his rfi range of 27 from CO is wider when iso-ing a fish. Do you 3bet here or just call and let the fish call too?
Flop
($1.00)
J
T
3
, ,
The fish folded so it's just me and him. I check , he bets, i call. All standard, but let me stick this in, do you ever consider check raising here?
Turn
($2.40)
J
T
3
2
, ,
After calling otf this feels like the only line.
River
($5.80)
J
T
3
2
5
, ,
Right here i don't think we beat any hand from his value range. As far as cbetting goes the small sample i have on him produced the following stats: Flop Cbet 71(8) , Turn cbet 100(5) , River cbet 100(1) with an agg factor of 2.1. Based on the available information, do you bluffcatch here?
Final Pot
CO
wins and shows a pair of Queens.
CO wins $12.22
Rake is $0.58
CO wins $12.22
Rake is $0.58
Loading 14 Comments...
I'm probably not folding when every single draw bricks and he bets so big. Though having the Ac in our hand isn't great because it blocks a few of his flush combos, I still don't think we can fold given all the other draws that missed.
We don't block straightdraws, and we do block Jx and AA, so I think this hand will be included in our bluffcatching range despite blocking some of his bluffing range with the Ac...just a hunch here though
tho how does blocking JX help u in blufcatching? only that u block JT and JJ... oh well thats 6c removed :D , and 3c AA , hmm so ok :p
btw he has like 30c val... sets, OPs, AJ.. 2P... so its a bit much of val he has here.. but yah... if we know he doesnt bluff OTR with missed draws than can fold exploitively
but if he turns just all his KQ into bluff OTR its enough to bc
btw i'd lean towards folding when u block his missed FDs... u dont block bit, but a lot, i guess its close and both call and fold can be good , but i like fold more here
Also we look capped in this spot which may give him enough incentive to bluff.
Maybe, I think this is kind of projecting a bit though.
Against some really tight opponents i'd find an exploitable fold here, because there are some villains that won't ever bluff when so many draws miss.
However, vs a guy with cbet stats like this, and vs a relatively small river bet, i'd never fold.
he looks wild on F+T but R is only 1hand sample... imo its just close between fold/call, he needs to bluff all KQ or all suited missed shit to make bc +EV , and i doubt he would do that even if he's crazy
in my experience, villains dont follow through with bluffs on rivers that whiffed this many draws. That said, it still probably cant be bad to call once. If he has it, we assume that he isnt following through with bluffs and next time call with a range that beats his valuebets. We may get owned in case he actually does follow through, but we ran in top of his range, but it still seems to be the best possible course of action to me.
I don't think you can conclude anything significant about his bluffing rate when he turns up with nuts here tho
You really can't make this assumption just because he shows you the nuts. We only really get information if he shows us a bluff here.
Just because he shows you JJ doesn't mean he wouldn't bluff here. He could be betting 100% of combos on this river for all we know, he will still have the nuts some of the time.
Does anyone 3b preflop or c/r the flop?
Eh, id want to play against the fish so flatting pre. Why would u c/r? That seems like the worst option to me. To elaborate, its not strong enough to be value, and we will fold out his bluffs, and then face a strong range OTT OOP and can't feel good betting. So his KQ type hands will have a chance to bluff as part of a balanced range anyways, and we're in a somewhat similar dilemma, just in a bigger pot against a tighter range.
Thanks for all the posts. I will now edit the hand history to let you see what he had.
Really close actually, I probably call here, I would definitely call without the Ac.
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