Should one follow preflop charts?
Posted by GMjunior
Posted by
GMjunior
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Low Stakes
Should one follow preflop charts?
Facing a 5bet jam should we fold a call according to sims if we suspect spot to be underbluffed? I am really trying to become more theoretically focused but getting consistently stacked preflop while following charts is massacring my winrate. Is it worth deviating or do I just have to wait for variance to even out. For example calling 8s-JJs vs BB 5bet jam BB vs SB
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Yes overfold and yes it's worth it to deviate. You have to understand that the GTO chart you're following DOES NOT equal the highest EV strategy. The chart is only maximizing EV against another GTO perfectly clairvoyant opponent. Which in reality at the tables is not happening. Learning theory should help you understand how to deviate to maximize EV. Learning theory is not copying a chart.
I understand this. But how can I tell by what margin I should overfold. I would need to build confidence in my reads, run sims to test how much I lose by overfolding vs how much I gain vs suspected villain's range. If I know I have a strategy which wins overall but just happens to lose when facing a 5bet, how can I tell if it is justifiable to choose a strategy which loses less vs 5-bets. Like how do I do what I have to do. Node-locking isn't specific to every player and i would need to be careful that counter-exploitation isn't so severe
I think your over complicating it. I've been stuck in this spot for a longtime. I've literally been a winnning player just doing what I feel, shooting up the stakes. But soon as I started applying strategy and GTO stuff I start losing quick. This would happen time and time again. I'd go from winning to broke even though I was studying harder lol.
For me the tricky thing with the GTO or deep strategy stuff is that the people teaching it, teach it really bad. They make it seem like it's some independent skill, that you just learn and then it will just print money. When it's not. Poker is just ranges. High level poker is just looking at an opponents range and then you take the opponent range and adapt yours to be ahead over the longrun. I'm no GTO expert but is it not a software that can perfectly balances ranges, but to get the balanced range you have to give it a range. It isn't independent. So you don't just call any 5bet with 88, you call 5bets if the opponent has a particular range.
How do you figure out an opponent range?? You have to play a lot of hands with him. See lots of showdowns. If your playing in a big pool where it's always new players you can't possibly know the ranges, therefore you have to play tight solid poker.
Now lets look at your specific spot with calling 5bets with 88-JJ. If your opponent is only 5betting AA,KK,QQ then you calling with jj-88 is gonna lose big over the long haul. Your equity is probably 20%. The way your equity will start to improve is when your opponent starts adding lots of non pair hands. So if your opponent 5bets AA,KK,QQ,AKo,AKs,AQ,AQo your equity will be like 43%. So as you can see the way you start to profitably call jj-88 is when you notice players are jamming lots of non pair Ax and broadways. When will an opponent do that?? It will have to be a player who's just crazy and likes bluff to much, or it will be a player that levels himself into thinking every late 3bet is a steal and therefore over bluffs.
exploitation is something I'm trying to stay away from just because it's so darn wishy washy and it can be hard to build reads without MDA and even with it, running sims and avoiding bias isn't something I feel worthy of investment at this stage of my career. Like I would want to be sure that enough EV is gained from overfolding to justify underdefending
4 betting 88-JJ at the microstakes seems too merged to me. They simply don't 3b/4b/5b anywhere near what charts will tell you. I would look to start polarizing my 4b range more. That way I have simple decisions.
How often are you getting folds when you 4b?
Here's the way you need to look at it. You are the one being exploited. How can that be? I'm playing a GTO unexploitable strategy? Here's an extreme example but it proves the point you open SB with a 40% GTO range BB 3bets a range only containing AA then you 4 bet a 15% GTO range. You're GTO 4bet strategy in that example is torching money and massivley -EV. Only when your opponent is 3betting optimally should you 4bet optimally. If they 3b less your opens gain EV. If they 3b more your 4bets gain EV. Try running a filter to see what your pools 3b freq. is in that spot and then their 5b freq. I assume both will be less than equilibrium
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