Should I pursue poker full time?
Posted by connorrash
Posted by
connorrash
posted in
Mid Stakes
Should I pursue poker full time?
Hi everyone -- I am a 21 year old college student and have been playing poker for the last 2-3 years. Over the last year, I have mainly grinded 500-2kNL app games and have won 15-20bb/100 at these games but have played some decent volume on ignition the last few months. Have won about 17.5bb/100 over my last 50k hands there at 500 and 1kNL -- definitely running hot but results this promising have made me consider playing full time. Is this still too small of a sample to know much about my actual winrate, or can I be confident that I am beating these games for at least 10bb/100? Just trying to get an idea of what I could expect my hourly to be, so that I can take that into account when deciding whether or not to play full time after graduation.
Would love to hear any thoughts you guys may have on how much I should weigh these results.
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I guess I really suck cause your graph looks like my last 50k hands on WPN once I flip my computer upside down. I don’t recall ever seeing a redline that far above profit/EV. Or perhaps I’m missing something?
I've seen red lines like this before - it's a very special way of playing. Yet, it entirely depends on a pool that adjusts poorly against a highly exploitive AND hence exploitable style.
That said, I'd say 50k hands is a very low sample to bind your life to. The topic is way more complex than just "am I making enough", think longterm! You're 21 years old - so you got like 45+ years to work. Think about that, even thouhg it seems like a far stretch for you right now. :-)
You can be confident you are beating these games for at least 10bb.
Based on what? Calcaulations show a 95% confidence interval starting with 4.8 bb/100, less than half of what OP requested.
Furthermore, it's a snapshot.50k is not only a small sample for calculation, but as well a small sample to adjust. I'd expect an 1k-pool to adjust over the time, which - given OP's playing style - might simply break his neck. But this is speculation, of course, although it's a viable risk, imho,
this is false.
confident where? 50k hands is literally nothing and he could be sunrunning and he probably does.
Never make big life decisions by asking random people on the internet for advice
Hahah -- of course not. Not going to weigh anything here particularly heavily but always nice to hear some additional opinions
"Come on," said Roark,, "you're not being afraid of me, are you? What do you want to ask about?"
"It's about my scholarship. The Paris prize I got."
"Yes?"
"It's for four years. But, on the other hand, Guy Francon offered me a job with him some time ago. Today he said it's still open. And I don't know which to take."
Roark looked at him; Roark's fingers moved in slow rotation, beating against the steps.
"If you want my advice, Peter," he said at last, "you've made a mistake already. By asking me. By asking anyone. Never ask people. Not about your work. Don't you know what you want? How can you stand it, not to know?"
Update: still running hot through 87k hands... working on making more folds and trying to turn my blueline around
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