Should I fold a flopped set on the river?
Posted by darren2607
Posted by
darren2607
posted in
Low Stakes
Should I fold a flopped set on the river?
BN: $5.99
SB: $10 (Hero)
BB: $14.95
UTG: $14.75
HJ: $10.35
CO: $9.47
SB: $10 (Hero)
BB: $14.95
UTG: $14.75
HJ: $10.35
CO: $9.47
I've got 75 hands on the villain, he's 25/22. AF of 6.5, which is 14, 8 and 1 on the flop, turn and river respectively. Winning player, seems reasonably decent.
Preflop
($0.15)
(6 Players)
Hero was dealt
J
J
UTG raises to $0.30, HJ folds, CO folds, BN folds, Hero calls $0.25, BB folds
UTG raises to $0.30, HJ folds, CO folds, BN folds, Hero calls $0.25, BB folds
Villain si going to be opening suited broadways, AJo+ and mot, if not all, PPs. I elect to call in the SB. I didn't feel I had that much value against his UTG range and don't want to turn it into a bluff, or play a bloated pot OOP, but would welcome thoughts on 3 betting this?
Flop
($0.70)
J
8
2
(2 Players)
Hero checks,
UTG bets $0.52,
Hero calls $0.52
Near enough dream flop for me, with top set. Villain is agro, cbetting 100%, so I check and he duly obliges. Given his high cbetting, I can't really narrow his range down, I would certainly cbet nearly all my range on a board like this. I elected not to raise, not wanting to fold out his weaker hands and giving him the chance to fire again, the only likely hands which could really call a raise are 22, 88, QQ+.
Turn
($1.74)
K
(2 Players)
Hero checks,
UTG bets $0.87,
Hero calls $0.87
Ghastly card for me completing the flush. On the plus side, villain picks up a lot of equity with his broadways making two pair, gutshots and so on. I think he would again barrel most of his range here.
River
($3.48)
A
(2 Players)
Hero checks,
UTG bets $2
Another overcard to my set and completes a probably unlikely q10 straight draw. Villain's AF has been low on the river but he makes a decent be
I get the distinct impression here I could be second best. Problem is I haven't really been able to narrow down villain's range because I've played so passively and he's very aggressive. He would certainly take this line with KK+ and his suited broadways which make a flush.
My guess is his range is 22, 88, QQ+, AJo+, KQo, QTs+, KTs+. I could maybe discount KQo, QQ hands, which he may just check behind for showdown value rather than turn in to a bluff.
Thoughts as to how I played it? Should i be raising the flop or another time?
Loading 14 Comments...
As played, I think it's a call OTR. Given your stats, clearly villain has a value range and we beat all his smaller sets and 2 pairs.
I'd probably 3b pre because I think villain is not a total nit and we are 6-handed. If we get 4b, we'd have to fold. If you do only just call, I think you need to c/raise this flop given how wet is it. Villain could have a number of draws such as overcard+gutshot, open ended straight draws, and flush draws.
I don't think villain has a flush here because of his sizing on the turn. OTR, he's going to be value betting worse so I think it makes it an easy call. You're probably looking at AJ/AK here.
On the flop, you need to raise for value. A lot of these guys at 10NL might go crazy with over pairs here, and you lose so much value by not 3 betting this flop. I would call here if the board was rainbow and then check raise the turn, but with the flush draw out there I opt to 3bet get it in on this flop.
@mushmellow. What do you think about a 3b preflop for value?
3 bet preflop for value. 75 hands doesn't really tell us that much but he's definitely not an 8/6 six-max granny.
I didn't feel I had that much value against his UTG range and don't want to turn it into a bluff, or play a bloated pot OOP
You wouldn't be bluffing with JJ. You don't have enough of a sample to make that assumption. He'll definitely be calling with worse. Regarding, playing OOP wouldn't you rather play OOP with a lower SPR rather than a higher one? I think villain's got to be a really nit box just to call here (you would be setmining JJ). 3bet and fold to 4bet as a standard vs this player without a sample size.
More stats on villains UTG open range and 3bet defend range IP would help you get a better idea on what to do but as a standard you should be 3betting for value.
I would rather just call with a hand like AQ than JJ in this spot.
"More stats on villains UTG open range and 3bet defend range IP would help you get a better idea on what to do but as a standard you should be 3betting for value."
Thanks guys, I'm still not really sure about 3 betting this pre, I'll just be in such a horrible position if any over card falls on the flop. I can see that c/r the flop is the way to go. I was worried about folding out his trash, but I've kind of compelled myself to call all the way down to the river because I haven't narrowed his range at all
I'm not 100% on this advice of 3betting preflop, it might be a good idea to check with some of the better players. I mostly play heads up, so this dynamic I am no expert in.
I think you will get better at playing OOP with practice. But if you just keep calling you won't get that practice.
What's your range for 3betting in this spot? QQ+, AK? Which hands are you 5 bet jamming over a 4bet vs an unknown?
Yeah, I do need to practise more oop, and sb v bb.
I think that's a pretty accurate range for my 3 betting value range, which i would then jam to a 4 bet. I'd also have some 3 bet bluff hands that I'd fold, but to an UTG raiser my 3 bet bluffs will be less frequent because I'm not sure i get as much fold equity
I am fine with the flat pre-flop, but my God man check raise this flop. Primary value of this hand is going to be stacking AA-QQ on the flop and on top of this he has plenty of other stuff that will call a check raise and give you value with. If you are not check raising JJ you are never check raising this flop (or at least not with any sort of balance), if you are not check raising this flop you are not exploiting his cbetting too much.
As played I call the river he has some 2 pair combos.
Kinda in a hurry, so just shortly my 2 cents, I disagree with flopraise being mandatory.
"Primary value of this hand is going to be stacking AA-QQ on the flop and on top of this he has plenty of other stuff that will call a check raise and give you value with. "
This is too simplified, imho.
What hands will you get three streets of value against if you x/r?
What hands can you call down with three barrels if you x/r with topset (preventing Villain from holding TP)?
I´d x/c topset - and call the river(!!!) - and x/r with middle/bottom set.
Yeah, with topset you block potential TP-/top2-combos of Villain that might call the x/r, so you´re essentially targeting lower sets and overpairs if you x/r - which is a very tiny part of his range.
Additionally it doesn´t support your range very well because your x/c-range gets pretty naked if you x/r all strong hands on the flop.
And against lower sets you won´t have any problems to get the money in anyways, it´s not as if Villain will suddenly pull the breaks only because a club hits - in contrast, if a club turns he will likely protect his set against another club on the river so you´ll definitely get another bet - the same bet you had gotten had you x/r the flop.
And if you think about it, if you x/r the flop with topset against lower set - and the club hits the turn - it´s actually even harder to get money from sets, because now you rep the flush and Villain is "only" calling for his boat outs of like 20%.
3b pre and is not close. The problem with calling is that a clubs kills your action for the parts of his range that would call a raise on flop. I would raise flop, not super big.
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