Set vs Turn lead on awkward board

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Set vs Turn lead on awkward board

Blinds: $0.25/$0.50 (6 Players) BN: $65.02
SB: $94.22
BB: $197.05 (Hero)
UTG: $219.41
MP: $60.45
CO: $142.96
Preflop ($0.75) Hero is BB with 8 8
4 folds, SB raises to $1.50, Hero calls $1.00
Flop ($3.00) 8 J T
SB checks, Hero bets $2.05, SB raises to $7.82, Hero raises to $20.00, SB calls $12.18
Turn ($43.00) 8 J T 9
SB bets $20.50, Hero calls $20.50
River ($84.00) 8 J T 9 A
SB bets $52.22 and is all in, Hero folds
Final Pot SB wins $82.00
Rake is $2.00

I've no doubt re river being a fold, but just wondering what your play would be on earlier streets?

Should we ever be floating villains turn lead in hopes of hitting full house or quads and getting in on the river?

Flop, when he check raised I re-raised as villain has a lot of KQ, JT, J9, T9, KJ, QJ that he has to still continue with.

Turn, 9 hits and villain leads half pot. I can't see leading JT, J9 here so we're facing KQ, QJ only really. Worst case against QJ we have 20% equity of hitting our FH and have to call $20 into $60, with $50 left behind if we hit. Are the implied odds there to call or should this just be a fold?

4 Comments

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Jeff_ 4 years, 11 months ago

Okay: I'm bit concerned about flop 3bet, does it really make sense? I'm not sure, only few hands wants to be 3betting and it is straights or bluffs(which can make straights).
So call flop and proceed. (This is without info strategy)
As played turn we getting 25% pot odds and we will bink FH around 22-24% of the time which is close as direct odds (I doubt we have implied odds(only vs wild rec), however OOP can be bluffing and check river or etc which gives us additionally EV) So looks alright

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