Set vs top pair vs straight flush draw. Did I play this correctly?
Posted by belrio42
Posted by
belrio42
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Low Stakes
Set vs top pair vs straight flush draw. Did I play this correctly?
Hi,
I play 10NL equivalent. This is a crazy hand (crazy for me anyway). I am not sure I played this correctly.
SB is a somewhat loose reg, BB is an unknown but tight player, BU is unknown. I think my image is slightly LAG, but I don't get out of line too much. I am in CO with Qs Js. Stack sizes are the following:
BU: 53 BB
SB: 29 BB
BB: 97 BB
Hero (CO): 120 BB
Preflop I raise to 3BB, BU calls, SB calls, BB calls.
Flop comes As Ts 6h. It gets checked around to me. I bet 7BB, BU calls, SB min-raises (!), BB calls (!!), I shove, BU folds, SB calls, BB calls.
SB showed up with Ah Qh and BB showed up with 66.
My thought process was that even against sets or two pairs, I have 12 outs, and most of them are to the nuts. And the amount of money in the pot means that I shouldn't need more than, say 30-ish percent equity to make the shove profitable. I checked Equilab, and I have 35% equity here against these exact hands.
Did I play this correctly?
Loading 4 Comments...
This is fine but it's going to be high variance. You actually have more than 12 outs, you have 14. Figure 8 clean flush outs (6s pairs board) and 9h, 9c, 9d, Kh, Kc, Kd. You actually have @ 37% vs. exactly 66 and vs. AQ, AT and TT. If you add in AK, one of your outs will be blocked, but you will still have 35%.
I typically feel pretty darn good getting $$$ in with a double gutter plus FD (which includes 2 straight flush outs BTW).
Yeah, looks ok.
Nice thing that texture runs in such way that most guys would only have sets of 66, as TT/AA are 3betting pre, thats definetely rising EV of combodraws considerably.
Shovimg ist +EV but the real question is wheter calling ist even more profitable. Unfortunately I don't know.
probably it will be quite hard to estimate EV of calling. Playing vs 2 opponents(multiways aren't easy to solve) with ''unknown ranges'' ( I mean their line is suspicions).
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