Set on a flush-completing river
Posted by belrio42
Posted by
belrio42
posted in
Low Stakes
Set on a flush-completing river
Blinds: $0.25/$0.50 (5 Players)
SB: $56.23 (Hero)
BB: $67.85
UTG: $49.19
CO: $65.25
BN: $60.27
BB: $67.85
UTG: $49.19
CO: $65.25
BN: $60.27
Preflop
($0.75)
Hero is SB with
8
8
, ,
BB is a TAG, tricky reg. We've stacked each other a few times, though I can't remember a recent case.
Flop
($2.50)
6
8
5
, ,
I have top set on a very wet board, and I get raised. I'm not sure if I should 3-bet here -- in general, I don't 3-bet flops almost ever because I have no idea how to balance it.
Turn
($13.46)
6
8
5
J
,
I was planning to check-raise shove on this safe-ish turn. Unfortunately BB just checked back for the free card. I don't think it's a good idea to have a donking range here. I just check all my hands.
River
($13.46)
6
8
5
J
T
, ,
The river completes a lot of draws. I'm in a dilemma. I have no clubs, and my hand doesn't make a good bluff-catcher. So I don't like to check-call. I could just check/fold, which would be fine -- but this hand is so high up in my range that it seems somewhat nitty.
So I take a bet/fold line, trying to get called by two pairs. Maybe this is also a "blocker" bet? I have no idea if this is a good idea -- in general I struggle to understand the concept of a blocker bet. It often just looks like burning money to me.
Villain raises my river bet and I fold, as intended. Maybe I just donated 11BB on the river -- or maybe it was a good play. Dunno.
So I take a bet/fold line, trying to get called by two pairs. Maybe this is also a "blocker" bet? I have no idea if this is a good idea -- in general I struggle to understand the concept of a blocker bet. It often just looks like burning money to me.
Villain raises my river bet and I fold, as intended. Maybe I just donated 11BB on the river -- or maybe it was a good play. Dunno.
Loading 9 Comments...
If he is raising this flop merged, I like just calling it (you want him to have like TT or JJ here). If he is polar here, I just 3 bet this flop. You are in great shape against value here (sets and 97s you are 70/30 fav against, and 50/50 if he has 97o) and will be solid favorite vs. his combo draws. You want him to jam all of his value and are basically indifferent with what he does with his draws since they are all substantial dogs but I don't want him setting the price on the flop.
shouldn't it be the opposite?
From my understanding, 3-betting flop would make more sense against a merged range, rather than a polar range?
If he's raising polar, he would just fold his bluffs and continue with his strong hands. If he's raising merged, he would pay me off with lots of medium-strength hands.
It's hard for him to have over pairs here, but if he does and he is reasonable, you are going to lose him when you bet/3bet here on the flop. He is drawing to at best 5 outs with 99 (he has to worry about the 9 making him strong but filling your straights/flushes) and 2 outs when he has TT and JJ. He is drawing dead vs. two pair. If he raises flush draws, he is drawing to 8 outs going to turn. I would consider this a "merged" type range. What would your play be with 99, TT, JJ or 86 here if you are in villains shoes? I personally would drop all of them since I am capped as BB and SB is not capped and can be pushing value with AA, KK, QQ along with nutted hands.
If he is raising polar, he has some high equity FD's, sets and the nuts. Vs. 97s and sets, you are still almost 70/30 against. Even with 97o included, you are a slight fav still. I do feel confident that almost the entirety of his range is going to get it in here vs a bet/3bet. Sets want to protect, you can have 2 pair here, you can have FD's here, you can have all sets here, you can have over pairs with blockers here, etc. and he is going to want to maximize FE when he has big combo draws.
My assumption is that solvers are going to check/raise this combo most often here but betting can't be horrible with the betting lead from preflop. I will also assume that solvers are always bet/3betting flop here with the intention of jamming turns when called or simply calling off when he gets it in on the flop.
As played, check/call reasonable river. Check/fold to jam (it's probably very close though).
Looks fine, your line and range also contains quite a few flushes.
Checking flop is what usually pio does. BB have equity/range and nut advantage on this board, so we don't want to bet almost ever.
Someone mentioned if he raises merged? Then we can 3bet (usually weaker hands than this 99-QQ, some draws, some overcards). If he goes entirely polar, calling and pushing equity later is my play.
River fine, can go bigger/fold. Your bluffcatcher should be above 0 EV vs good opponent, but with rake/tighter enviroment it will go to -200bb...-500bb/100bb
It's true that the flop is good for BB's range, but I think betting with some very strong hands does make sense.We just want to bet bigger and less frequently? At least that is my understanding.
We can have all the sets and most of the two pairs and straights here. Blind vs Blind ranges can be very wide, and checking top set seems rather conservative to me.
New to the site and this is my first post, so take this advice with a grain of salt..
I think the flop is too wet not to 3-bet. Even if villain will raise flop bet merged (99-QQ), there are too many bad cards on the turn that will either kill your action and/or leaving you guessing on how to proceed. Also, from villain perspective a raise PF, lead flop, call raise looks very strong and will likely check back all draws and merged range on the turn. I think 3-betting to $20 denies equity to the variety of draws on this board and commits you to the hand. If villain raises, we call. If villain calls, we shove all turns as your remaining stack will be a little less than the pot, which will feel gross if a club, 9 or 4 peel off, but you have the top of your range plus a draw to full house if your beat. If you check turn and villain jams, I think you have to call it off, so prefer to shove and get value from lower sets and 2 pair.
(I'm not sure if this is correct, but this is my initial stab at balancing this flop)
On this flop texture, I would do the following..
Check – Overpairs, AK-AT, nut flush draw, 97 clubs
Bet – Sets, straights, 2 pair, combo draws, gut shot draws, non-nut flush draws, under pairs,
other air
After a raise on this flop texture, I would continue as follows…
Call – 2 pair, non-nut flush draws
Raise – Sets, straights, combo draws
Think the range difference is here not big as it is SB vs BB although the BB is capped and less likely to have AJs+, KQs, AQo+, JJ+ as that could easily be three bet. So on the one hand the BB has a little more hands that hit this flop but the SB has more hands that contain close to nut flush draws and AA, KK type of hands.
Would bet out with a lot of hands here any 7, any set any over-pair any flush draw and backdoor flush draw with a 9 in it or with two over cards etc to many to name them all :). On his raise I would fold my back door flush draw and TT.
So I like the check call on the flop you have top set.
On the turn I can see betting out here as the card does not complete any draw which could have made a stab at the pot on the flop. Sizing of about 2/3 pot. Checking turn with the idea of check/calling river is another option. I don't see betting out as a donk(y) bet but more as a bet to get more money from draws and don't give a free card.
Given the check/check on the turn I would check-call on the river for any bet that is not to large (more then 2/3 pot or so). There are still lots of 7x combos that could bluff this run out such as 67s, 87s, 57s, A7s. He could even overvalue 66 or 55 and bet that on the river trying to extract more value from an over pair. I don't think villains range can contain a lot of flushes as he did not 3 bet preflop.
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