Set facing river shove

Posted 9 years, 2 months ago

Blinds: $0.05/$0.10 (6 Players) BB: $6.35
UTG: $12.39
MP: $10.87
CO: $14.43
BN: $29.49
SB: $27.20 (Hero)

Villain is 22/17/2.2 over 165 hands.

Preflop ($0.15) Hero is SB with 8 8

UTG folds, MP raises to $0.25, 2 folds, Hero calls $0.20, BB folds

Flop ($0.60) 8 5 T

Hero checks, MP checks

Turn ($0.60) 8 5 T Q

Hero checks, MP bets $0.42, Hero raises to $1.42, MP calls $1.00

I think the Q is a decent card for him to either bluff at or valuebet so I go for the x/r here.

River ($3.44) 8 5 T Q K

Hero bets $2.40, MP raises to $9.20 and is all in, Hero

I feel like he can't have 55/TT/QQ/KK or J9 here after the flop play. Does he just always have AJ here?