SB w/ T9s vs BB Squeeze - Overplayed? (NL25)
Posted by TimberSK
Posted by
TimberSK
posted in
Low Stakes
SB w/ T9s vs BB Squeeze - Overplayed? (NL25)
BN: $31.56
SB: $59.84 (Hero)
BB: $25
HJ: $28.33
CO: $35.43
SB: $59.84 (Hero)
BB: $25
HJ: $28.33
CO: $35.43
Only about 30 Hands on BTN and BB.
BTN 29/9
BB 18/14
Seen BB semi-bluffing and turning 3rd pair into bluff on river once so far.
BTN 29/9
BB 18/14
Seen BB semi-bluffing and turning 3rd pair into bluff on river once so far.
Preflop
($0.35)
(5 Players)
Hero was dealt
T
9
HJ folds, CO folds, BN raises to $0.75, Hero calls $0.65, BB raises to $3, BN folds, Hero calls $2.25
HJ folds, CO folds, BN raises to $0.75, Hero calls $0.65, BB raises to $3, BN folds, Hero calls $2.25
I would raise more often than call from the SB here vs the BTN open, but I guess calling is fine?
Then I decide to call the squeeze and play fit or fold here. Any comments?
Then I decide to call the squeeze and play fit or fold here. Any comments?
Flop
($7.00)
4
3
9
(2 Players)
Hero checks,
BB bets $4.25,
Hero calls $4.25
Standard, right? Would not want to raise and have only his value continue.
Turn
($15.50)
4
3
9
3
(2 Players)
Hero checks,
BB bets $9.50,
Hero raises to $19,
BB calls $8.25, and is all in
My questions here:
1. Would you ever fold (with the only above-mentioned read)?
2. With the sizing, do you give him any non-spades unpaired overcards?
My reasoning to shove was to protect my pair against overcards but thinking of it now I see few to none of them.
3. Does the following make sense?
His range after his turn bet: TT+,AsKs,AsQs,KsQs,7h6h,7s6s,6h5h,6s5s,AsKc,AsKd
Value heavy, but I give him a few bluffs and semi-bluffs.
Against that range I have 37,8% equity.
His range after his turn call: TT+,AsKs,AsQs,6s5s
My equity is 28% here.
My price for calling his turn cbet: $9,50 to win $24,75 = 38,4% (vs my 37,8%)
My price for setting him all-in: $17,75 to win $50,75 = 35% (vs my 28%)
Thus, my shove is bad as I have way too little equity against his calling range.
Also, unless he has more bluffs than I think it is not even a call.
4. Considering I call the turn, what would be your move on certain river cards?
1. Would you ever fold (with the only above-mentioned read)?
2. With the sizing, do you give him any non-spades unpaired overcards?
My reasoning to shove was to protect my pair against overcards but thinking of it now I see few to none of them.
3. Does the following make sense?
His range after his turn bet: TT+,AsKs,AsQs,KsQs,7h6h,7s6s,6h5h,6s5s,AsKc,AsKd
Value heavy, but I give him a few bluffs and semi-bluffs.
Against that range I have 37,8% equity.
His range after his turn call: TT+,AsKs,AsQs,6s5s
My equity is 28% here.
My price for calling his turn cbet: $9,50 to win $24,75 = 38,4% (vs my 37,8%)
My price for setting him all-in: $17,75 to win $50,75 = 35% (vs my 28%)
Thus, my shove is bad as I have way too little equity against his calling range.
Also, unless he has more bluffs than I think it is not even a call.
4. Considering I call the turn, what would be your move on certain river cards?
Hi everyone,
My first post here! Also, this is the first time I am sharing a hand this way, so open to any advice.
Thank you!
Tim
Loading 7 Comments...
You are missing an important part of the math here. You say you are 37.8% vs his turn bet range, and are 28% vs his get in range on the turn. If this is true you are ignoring the $ you win when he folds part of his range.
Additionally, I am assuming that you 3b 1010 pre. If this is true then you are essentially NEVER CALLING TURN if you fold here.
I think hand is fine as played and there's not much you can do other then shove IMO.
As for preflop, its pretty meh, the call is pretty marginal.
Thank you m_zeal,
True, I missed that! Here I go:
So, assuming he holds 39 hand combinations when betting and folds 6 of them (15,38%) to a shove.
Shove EV:
(15,38% * $25,00) + (84,62% * 28% * $50,75)
-
(84,62% * 72% * $17,75)
=
$15,87 - $10,81 = $5,06
I win $5,06 on that shove with these ranges then, right?
You say we had no calling range if we were to fold the turn here if we 3bet TT pre. Since we do not want to call the turn but shove it, do we have any calling range at all here then? Do we want one?
No we don't need a calling range, I meant a continuing range as we don't really call here given stacks.
Why has no one mentioned leading the turn? surely its more profitable to lead here? I'm on the end of a 40 hour essay session so i'm struggling to write words...but Surely there's a bunch of reasons, 1) we avoid him checking through and letting him draw out, 2) we can induce a bunch of overplays cause it looks like a bad bluff, as there are almost no 3's left in your range.
Plus when he bets more than 50% of his remaining stack i think we calculated his turn range wrong. (once again I've literally got not much left) when he bets so much i think we can take away a lot of unmade hands. like he's got a hand he wants to get it in with but doesn't want you to fold.
P.s maybe this is why i lose on long sessions. Sorry all if this is no good...lol and smiley face
Sounds reasonable to me to lead the turn here (betting something around $7,00 to make it look as though we could get away?). What he might overplay then are the flush draws and potentially AsKx and 88-77 if he is very aggressive, although I find the latter unlikely. Interested to see what others say though as I barely have leading ranges in these situations at this moment. Plus, I guess I have to agree on what you say about him almost never folding after this big of a turn cbet so that the above ranges should be too optimistic.
i dislike flatting pre from the sb with pretty much anything, unless you have reason to keep the bb in the pot.
i don't like leading turn. i don't really know what range you would be representing? ye you fold out some of his 2 overcard hands, but i don't think that is enough incentive to lead into his 3-betting range. don't really know what we're supposed to do ott but i try to avoid these situations where we're oop by playing differently pre. make a range for him and do some maths.
Agreed, My thinking was that we don't rep anything so we can induce him into a bad call or a bluff/Overplay. There's a bunch of hand that's he's never folding and mostly always betting so by leading we pick up a small amount of fold equity/protection and some extra value from the AKss type hands.
As for the opening call pre? folding seems bad might not be, but if as a range play treat 109ss similar to the say the 53ss then we're not really looking to hit a pair and stack off, we're more chasing straights and flushes etc, so we should be both calling to keep the pot small and to price in the BB. Just a thought.
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