SB vs BB - Raised paired board with flush

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SB vs BB - Raised paired board with flush

Blinds: $0.10/$0.25 (6 Players) BN: $66.56
SB: $25.00 (Hero)
BB: $25.35
UTG: $11.39
MP: $34.34
CO: $28.58
Preflop ($0.35) Hero is SB with 6 K
4 folds, Hero raises to $0.75, BB calls $0.50
Flop ($1.50) 7 Q 7
Hero bets $0.43, BB calls $0.43
I decided to cbet this hand but was doubting between check/call and cbet here. Given that people likely still overfold these spots I decided to cbet, do it often and smaller size. Likely that I need to check here way more OOP in theory but exploitative we want to bet. That's my opinion at least, feel free to comment on why I'm wrong.
Turn ($2.36) 7 Q 7 T
Hero bets $3.25, BB calls $3.25
This feels like a spot Peter Clarke would say is an overbet. BB raises a lot of his 7x hands, We have QQ, TT, AQ, AA, KK and now more 7x as well so we can apply a lot of pressure. And get away with a lot of bluffs because of this, bluffs that do have equity when called.
River ($8.86) 7 Q 7 T 4
Hero bets $6.35, BB raises to $20.92 and is all in, Hero calls $14.22 and is all in
So we actually get there. Now all I need to do is decide on a sizing. I decided for a size that I would want to bet with my thinner valuebets and even full houses that are blocking calling range. But it's likely I should have multiple sizing options here.

So we got raised, but do we call? Let's assume given the stakes that BB is not doing this as a bluff.
BB's value range:
77, 7Ts, 74s, Q7s, AJcc, A9cc, A8cc, A5cc, A3cc, A2cc are the value hands we don't beat for a total of 13 combo's.
QJcc, Q9cc, Q8c, J9cc, J8cc, 98cc for a total of 6 combo's we beat.

Now it is possible that BB doesn't raise all those flushdraws we do beat. And it is possible he considers A7 as a value jam. Hard to say readless. Let's look at some math instead. We have to be good 28.44%. So we do need him to bluff 6 combo's.

5 Comments

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radek 4 years, 10 months ago

Tough spot for me :)
Why do you think he has Axcc here? Wouldn't he fold it to turn overbet? I'm not saying that it's not right, I don't know myself, so just want to know your reasoning.

Shaun Pauwels 4 years, 10 months ago

With position, so much money still to play for, and having a really strong draw I don't think he should fold AXcc on the turn. It's also the backdoor flush getting there so it's less believable and he can bluff with it when I check on spades, some straight cards, Kx, etc... .

I'm not 100% sure though as I'm rather new to overbets myself and haven't put this through a solver yet. So I went with worst case scenario where he would have all those better flushes.

Meliodas 4 years, 10 months ago

You've played very well flop and turn, but I think this is an exploitative fold OTR, expecially vs a regular. But is probably more important to overbet this river too; you betting strategy here wants to continue to be polarized and this hand too high in you value range to use a smaller size (don't forget that you want to put max pressure to BB range with your bluffs too).

DNegs98 4 years, 10 months ago

In theory this board is going to be a high frequency x out of the SB and it's because you're at a very big disadvantage in terms of trips because you don't get to open the off-suit 7x but the BB gets to defend them so trips only makes up around 5% of your range but it's around 10% for the BB even with their wider capped range preflop. If you're playing a mix of limps and raises then this is less likely to be the case because your raising range will have more balanced board coverage and will be a bit less linear but with an only raising range I just play 77x boards as a range x out of the sb.

I think overbetting the turn can be fine particularly if you're anticipating their range to be more capped than it should be or maybe you think they'll overfold with 1 pair hands but I think that AQ/AA might be a bit dubious here as value bets for the bigger size. It's not to say that they're not ahead of the calling range but you have to play another street OOP on a dynamic board where you're very likely going to have to x and bluff catch so inflating the pot now with 1 pair hands can cause you problems down the road.

It also means that you're leaving those hands out of other lines, firstly your turn x/c will be lacking snap calls to river bets and also there's an under utilised line with this particular hand class of premium single pair hands with blockers to ace high where you x them here to x/r them on a brick river because it's likely that villain will either have to bluff or have a thin value bet thereby extracting maximum value (particularly because it gets looked up a lot the first few times because it doesn't appear to make much sense). This also deters your villains from value betting the river against you - in the long run this will get you a lot of cheap showdowns with Tx against weak Qx that should be getting value from you because they get fed up of being raised or called by a better hand. It's also nice from the perspective that you may decide your villain is underbluffing river so you don't want to pay them off but you still have these hands which are ahead of some value bets that you can still look them up with in case you're getting run over.

One other thing is that if you do take this line with 1 pair hands too often then the EV of villain just flatting their trips on the flop goes up because you're going to put in too much money on this turn node and they will get to make a massive river bet as well.

On the river I honestly don't think low stakes players jam a worse value hand, jamming thin for value is just not in their playbook so I'm just happy to let this go also as stated earlier they should have T7o and Q7o here and also you're just going to have the nuts a lot, it's really not the end of the world if you let a hand like this go against most players. Occasionally you'll find out someone has been owning you in this spot because you eventually will have the nuts to call them down but that one person is far outweighed by all the people who don't.

Just quickly in terms of playing multiple sizings on this river you basically can go 2/3 with all your trips and most boats but then you can have a small overbet sizing for some flushes and mix in a bit of the 2/3 with weaker ones or ones that block Qx and then you want to x/r QQ, TT, AKdd/AQdd. Pio wasn't using the jam very much at all and I think that's because when you ask them to defend a narrow range it's very easy and there's just a massive overlap in combos so you just cooler them or get coolered yourself rather than getting value from forcing them to bluff catch you, basically a very high proportion of their range is trips+ and we want to force them to defend wider than that.

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