I watched this hand today, and actually pulled the HH off of 2+2.

Full Tilt Poker, Holdem NL - $100/$200 - 2 players

HSDB Parser v2.2 - Highstakesdb.com - Hand #1354073

WCGRider (BU/SB): $152008.04 (760 bb)Sauce1234 (BB): $18551.25 (93 bb)

Pre Flop: ($300) WCGRider (BU/SB) raises to $480, Sauce1234 (BB) 3-bets to $1440, WCGRider (BU/SB) calls $960

Flop: ($2880) 9 4 3 (2 players)

Sauce1234 (BB) checks, WCGRider (BU/SB) bets $2000, Sauce1234 (BB) calls $2000

Turn: ($6880) J (2 players)

Sauce1234 (BB) checks, WCGRider (BU/SB) bets $4000, Sauce1234 (BB) calls $4000

River: ($14880) A (2 players)

Sauce1234 (BB) bets $11111.25 (all in), WCGRider (BU/SB) calls $11111.25

Total pot: $37102.5 (Rake: $0.5) 

Showdown:

WCGRider (BU/SB) shows T K(Equity - pre: 65%, flop: 48%, turn: 68%, river: 100%)

Sauce1234 (BB) shows 6 5(Equity - pre: 35%, flop: 52%, turn: 32%, river: 0%)

WCGRider (BU/SB) wins $37102

I'm intrigued by the call here, because Ben has the reputation of being a very balanced player, so it seems strange to me to see WCG make a call that is (or at least appears to be) very exploitative.  On the river WCG is getting 2.34:1 so he need to be good very close to 30% of the time to make the call.

I did some work in Odds Oracle.  Against a (river) range of (AxKy-AxJy,6x5y)@100,(Ax4y,Ax3y)@25,(AxKx-AxJx)@75 WCG has 27.44% equity--which is not quite enough to call.  We can make the argument that WCG doesn't expect Ben to be 3b the worse Ax hands which gives Ben a range of (AxKy-AxJy,6x5y)@100,(AxKx-AxJx)@75, and WCG 29.89%--very very close to the right amount to call, but not quite enough.  (For those wondering I weighted the AKs-AJs hands at 75% to remove diamond combos.  In retrospect, because of card removal from the Jh and As it doesn't work out exactly right but it's close.)

But I personally wouldn't expect to see him 3b 65o 100%, and I certainly wouldn't expect to choose to c/call the flop with it 100%.  So for this to be a profitable call WCG has to be expecting Ben to be c/c some more floaty hands than just 56.  I'm not entirely sure what other air type hands we might expect Ben to have in his 3b range that are able to c/call this flop and then bluff the river. 67 makes sense, but again I wouldn't expect to see it played this way every time.  I wouldn't expect a hand like T8 or QT to be 3b often, but if we do include them as well as the other hands that are straight draws and over to the 34, and give Sauce a range of (QxJy,QxTy,JxTy,7x6y,7x5y,6x5y)@40,(AxKy-AxJy)@100,(AxKx-AxJx)@75 then WCG has 34.3% equity making it a profitable call.

I suppose I haven't actually asked a question yet, but I'm wondering what others think of the call as well as Sauce's line.  Are my Odds Oracle ranges completely off base?  What hands would you expect to see, and what hands do you think WCG must have expected to see to make this call?

The flip side to this situation is actually almost as interesting as looking at it from WCG's point of view.  An intriguing question is whether or not Sauce expects to have enough fold equity even if he's getting called by good K-highs.  In other words, a great question to ask is "Does Sauce mind getting called with KT here?"  Of course he has the nut low so if he's going to be at all balanced he should be bluffing with this hand, but is the bluff still profitable in a vacuum if it's getting called by K-high?

In order for it to be a profitable bluff Ben needs to see a fold more than 42.75% (He's risking $11,111.25 to win $14880).

If WCG is calling with KTs we will start building his range by putting in all better hands that are in his preflop raise/call range, and bet the first two streets.  To start I gave him the top 30% of hands, then took out all hands that are 4b pre, and that are likely checking back at least one street.

I get a range of KxQx-Kx5x,KxQy-Kx9y,QxJx-Qx8x,QxJy,QxTy,JxTx-Jx8x,JxTy,Tx9x,Tx8x,99,9x8x,44,33, some 143 combos.  That means that for Sauce's bluff to be profitable WCG needs to be folding the bottom 42.75 of his hands, or more than the bottom 61 combos.  

From my approximate calculations, if he is calling with KT+, he's calling with 91/143 combos, meaning he's only folding 52 combos, or 36.4% of the time.  And also, there are a lot more Kx combos that WCG could conceivably find the same call with (I assumed KT to be the bottom of his calling range for this).  Meaning Sauce is losing $1650 bluff shoving the absolute bottom of his range.  

Anyway, hope someone else found that interesting.  Curious to hear what people think of my assumptions!