I would lead out on the flop and fire away. I think he doesnt check qk, kk or qq or q9 behind very often, because he can get hands to call that a) either put him on a flush draw b) he can get called by draws that are dead and win villains stack if they improve.

I think he has many flushes and straights in his river raising range, therefore i call here.

I'm x/r the flop if not donking myself, which is usefull sometimes vs regs that won't put you on a set when you do it. As played i'm calling the river, i only loose to KQ, and he as a lot of flushes on his range, especially because people usually don't play sets on wet boards has you did.

Aggre with Disharmonist and LikeItGreen, I call too :)

Insta calling. He probably bets KQ OTT and he has a lot of flushes. I like donking polarized when HU OOP on certain boards but multiway I don't like it so much because it is more difficult to balance. Even though you are right that we only rep KQ, 66 and big draws I think its better to x/r here instead of not getting the whole value our hand has by x/c

I don't think we can fold here.

I don't think we should have a raising range here? I'm only repping 2 hands really, 66 and KQ or maybe a big draw.

Doesn't matter how thin you rep as long as you balance it accordingly.

But leading turn with semi wide range is probably a very good idea as you are going to have significant range advantage on this turn card as he isn't going to have any Qx except KQ.

I'm kinda shocked how every single person above meant that this is a clear call.

we have to figure out two things:

a) is he ever bluffing here? - I think the answer is no - close to 100%pct of the time.

b) if he shoves for value, which value combos do we beat?

Which hands he would play like this? Well, I think he would xback some Kx on the turn, because the Q is a very good card for your range. But I don't believe that he bluffshoves Kx on the river (it would be a great play though with a hand like AsKx, because he blocks the nutflush and the most common boat with KQ), but that seems unreal for nl25.

He probably also plays his weaker draws like this (JTs, AJs, ATs and so on). But I can't believe he bluffshoves one of them (so it's only AJss, ATss and JTss, which gets a str8 flush). Further, I don't think he jams JTo here, that would be a bluff.

In the end, u have to count both parts of his shoving range:

Combos that we beat (assuming he shoves this hands 100%pct of the time):

We beat:

[AJss,ATss] - total of 2 combos

We lose against:

[KQs(2),QQ(1),KK(3),JTss] - total of 7 combos

Now, lets do the math:

He risks 22.50$ (effective) to win 33.25$ (22.5$+5.85$+4.9$ ; rake not included).

22.50 / 33.25 = 67.7%. He has to "bluff" (shove with a weaker hand) ~68% of the time.

Given the tight range (that's realistic, because ppl do not overbetshove that big all the time and u even bet pot on the river) he has 9 combos to shove here.

9 * 0.68 = 6.12 = 6 combos that he bluffs in this spot to 3 combos he shoves for value.

But we have only two.

Imo it's a fold on the river.

Vs KK-QQ,99,KQs,AsJs,AsTs,JsTs,As9s,As8s,As7s,As6s,As5s,As4s,As3s,As2s,KQo you have just enough for a BE call.
So unless he jams all flushes 100% it`s a pretty easy fold.

Betting river is a mistake, especially this sizing when villain`s range is nuts or air/bluffcatchers.
Assuming he never calls with worse then a flush and is bet/folding all flushes himself when checked to, you only want to x/r KQ+, (Qx as a bluff), and x/c everything else.

@kevson, you never need more then 50%, also hero only has $17 behind.

I agree with u that betting river that big is a mistake, given the turn action.

I think u don't get my math. It's not like "we need 68% to make a good call", but it's villain needs to BLUFF 68% of the time. In this spezific spot we need to be good 32% of the time. I think thats not the case.

And I don't think he plays all his flushes that way.

And if u count, I consider that hero has only 17$ behind (25$-0.75$(preflop)-1.75$(flop)=22.50$ (villain has to put hero all in, thats the reason why I don't count the 4.90$, it's included in the 22.50$).

I`m not sure about 25NL, but any limit below (unless villain is a super fish that overvalues flushes) this is an easy fold vs any reg-ish/ tight-ish player... they would only have KK and KQ, 99.9% :)

@kevson, you can`t exclude $4.9 from the pot, because the pot is $28.35 before we call or fold, and $17.6 is the effective stacks size before he shoves.

Also, he doesnt need to bluff more then 50% for us to break even.If he bluffs/value bets 1 worse combo + value bets 1 better combo and we always call, we lose 1 and win 1. So its not that he needs to bluff or value bet worse x% of the time, it`s what % of the time our range needs to be good vs his range.

Simple example :

We have ThTc on 2c2d2s4c4d board.Pot is $10 and villain bets 2xp with a polarized range of AA,A7s,A5s-A4s.So we need 50% equity and we have exactly 50% vs mentioned range.
But he doesn`t have worse other 50% of the time, because as you can see he has 6 combos of AA and 8 combos of A7s,A5s-A4s.

As I can see u don't get me, the term is betsize/potsize. He bets (=raises/shoves in this case) 22.50$ (effective, because hero already has 4.9$ in the pot on the river and needs to call an all-in of 17.60$. But Villain has to put 22.50$ into the pot) to win the pot (after his shove). This is 22.50$ + 4.9$ (of hero's river bet) + former streets = 33.25.

It's a term to think about villains bluffing frequency. If he bets bigger, he has to bluff more.

If he pots, he bets e.g. 10 to win 20 (10 pot + 10 psb) =0.5 = 50% bluffing frequency. So this value easily can go higher than 50%.

I agree with the point that we never need more than 50% eq to make a profitable call, thats logical. But this is a different way to analyse this hand.

All in all, this hand should be a fold.