rivered straight vs unknown... check or bet?

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rivered straight vs unknown... check or bet?

Blinds: $0.10/$0.25 (6 Players) MP: $25.00
CO: $27.11
BN: $24.75
SB: $25.45
BB: $25.35 (Hero)
UTG: $26.33
Preflop ($0.35) Hero is BB with A 7
2 folds, CO raises to $0.50, BN calls $0.50, SB folds, Hero calls $0.25
Flop ($1.60) 6 8 4
Hero checks, CO checks, BN bets $1.50, Hero calls $1.50, CO folds
Turn ($4.60) 6 8 4 J
Hero checks, BN bets $2.19, Hero calls $2.19
River ($8.98) 6 8 4 J 5
Hero checks, BN checks

villain is 33/33 over 6 hands no read

normally vs and aggressive player i would check this river to bluff catch cause its the type of river that a bluffy player would try to bluff but vs unknown is it better to just donk on river

if donking is better how much would be optimal amount?

12 Comments

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Dddogkillah 9 years, 2 months ago

C/R flop would be really good here, and happy to gii.
Donk/calling could be sick if your balancing your range here, cant really go wrong with anything except fold.
As played after C/Cing flop this looks ok. Not much you can do on river unless your going to donk. Which is meeh in my opinion OTR.

esso.g 9 years, 2 months ago

what would you start balancing with this line and this board?

Dddogkillah 9 years, 2 months ago

It matters how wide you defending but I could see some value hands being 75s, sets, 86s, hands like this. For bluffs BDFD+overcards(KdQx, Ac5c, KcJc, etc)
You can look at this hand almost like a value hand on flop in my opinion.

The4thcircle 9 years, 2 months ago

At the end of the day you're a 2:1 favourite against an top pair or overpair on the flop (of which only really 99/TT really likely). A straight is hugely unlikely, and you block it. Even against the top of his range like sets your 42%. Raise flop and look to gii. If I get called on flop I'm barrelling.

kafrinius 9 years, 2 months ago

(Sometimes i sqz pre too )
i'm pot donking flop latetly... just cause i think my set hand needs some protection......and we have a very good equity hand to semibluff it here.....

The second option i think it's x/raise plaanning to get it in .....

X/calling not the worst play in the world but the board is very dynamic and u will lost value in turns/rivers if u complete ur draws.

Disharmonist 9 years, 2 months ago

I prefer betting turn with that much EQ and put pressure on villains marginal hands right now. You can even call a turn raise if you are worried about getting raised off your EQ.

sluske93 9 years, 2 months ago

I also think betting turn is better then being in this spot... as played... bet small and hope he is badish and hero calls

tonic1223 9 years, 2 months ago

As played, without any reads on villain I think we are way more likely to get herocalled here by donking out on river versus hoping villain can super ultra thin value bet a hand like 89s or Jxs/TT type hand and have HERO attempt a chk/raise, which is never getting called either.
Basically villain has SDV, the straight himself, or complete air(less likely since he did fire twice). So by checking, we target a tiny portion of his bluffing range and hope he wants to fire 3 barrels into us on a draw completing river that hits our range more than his.
But by betting, we target the biggest part of his range that will either herocall us, or raise us(we only lose to 79, but split with lots of his 7x hands). So I think we make more money this way longterm.

esso.g 9 years, 2 months ago

x/r seems like a a wonderful plan i construct a range last night

JJ-88,66,44,KdQd,KdJd,QdJd,JdTd,Td9d,87s,76s,87o,76o
vs this im 51%

so its appeealing im have to x/r

KatonBond 9 years, 2 months ago

I'm leaning towards a x/r OTF, because your hand is insanely strong and you have good equity no matter what he has. Even if he has a straight for some reason you have 35%~ equity. Also if he has like KQdd or a lower flush draw that he will probably get in your crushing him. and the thing is, if you hit your hand you might not get paid or get any action.

As played I think if you didn't raise flop, you would have to raise turn. You're equity shrinks considerably so you're not getting the right odds to call, and I'm not sure what your plan is if you miss. He might not fire river so you won't be able to x/r certain rivers, and I'm not sure what rivers that you don't hit would be a good lead if you don't raise this turn. I'm more likely to call AKdd AQdd since those hands have good SDV, but I think A7 is too weak.

As played OTR I don't think he will bet this river with any part of his range that doesn't have a 7 so you would have to lead. I don't think this is a spot where he's likely to triple barrel bluff you on this runout. I'm not sure what kinds of bluffs you can get to the river with in this spot(Maybe A2-A9dd,Kxdd) which is the problem with playing the hand this way. However as played you're only chance to get any value is to lead river.

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