Rivered set facing shove
Posted by DiamondClub
Posted by
DiamondClub
posted in
Low Stakes
Rivered set facing shove
Blinds: $0.05/$0.10 (6 Players)
MP: $15.13 (Hero)
CO: $10.00
BN: $5.78
SB: $13.84
BB: $14.22
UTG: $9.95
CO: $10.00
BN: $5.78
SB: $13.84
BB: $14.22
UTG: $9.95
Villain is 11/0 over 11 hands.
Preflop
($0.15)
Hero is MP with
Q
Q
, , , , , , ,
I think calling here w/ QQ is fine ?
Flop
($3.40)
J
3
7
,
Not much to say I suppose, I won't fold an overpair to the c-bet since he'll probably c-bet AK,AQ, AJ, FDs.
Turn
($7.80)
J
3
7
T
,
Do you think there's merit in betting here ? I think the FDs and overpairs will call, sets might raise now (although I really only see JJ in his range here), TP will likely call again. I think by checking I can get him to bet w/ a Jx or busted draw OTR.
River
($7.80)
J
3
7
T
Q
,
All the FDs bricked. AK, 89 got there although I don't think he will squeeze 89. He might also shove a set w/ JJ, maybe AA,KK,AQ is he's bad. Do we call here ? At 10NL probably won't turn their FDs into bluffs in this spot...
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Readless I don't think it makes sense to assume he'll shove with his missed flush draws.
If we assume a value range of JJ, TT, AK (all combos), AA then you're good 43% of the time and this is a fold.
I think understanding if he'll cbet with AKo here is important. If he's only cbetting with AcKc, AdKd, AdKx (bdfd), JJ, TT, AA then our equity improves dramatically and we can call.
Thanks for the reply.
I agree. At 10NL people will probably bet all of their AK OTF. Would you think that AK makes a big enough portion of their range to make betting the turn better than checking behind, i.e. charging his FD+GS+overcards w/ AKs and GS+overcards w/ AKo for seeing another card ?
Assuming he cbets all of his AK, he'll have 16 combos of AK, 6 combos of AA, 3 combos of JJ, 3 combos of TT so AK makes up 57% of his range.
If he only cbets the AK with a FD or BDFD then he'll have 5 combos of AK, 6 combos of AA, 3 combos of JJ, 3 combos of TT, so AK will be 30% of range.
As you can see above, which combos of AK he uses to cbet is very important but we have no way of knowing with only 11 hands. I favour bet/folding turn because people at 10NL don't generally semi-bluff turns often enough so he's more likely to call with hands like AcKc/AdKd and more likely to raise with hands that have us crushed.
I like a bet/fold on the turn. There are 2 FDs and some SDs.
As played I think he probably bets turn with a set or an overpair so after his bet/check/overbet I think river should be an "I hate my life * puke * " fold because this is almost always AK. I don't think villains at 10nl are jamming TT or JJ here. An overbet OTR is always the nuts.
Totally agree, bet/fold turn, sigh and fold river
I have 16 combos of AK on this river so I would fold QQ. I probably shouldn't have anywhere near as many combos of AK when I play this way but hey, I do.
I think it's an exceptionally weird line to adopt with AA/KK, his FDs are primarily AKs, KQs and perhaps J10s(when he squeezes pre). You block KQs, the board rules out J10dd which he would conceivably barrel OTT and shut down on draw completing rivers. Perhaps he barrels AKdd on turn, he certainly cbets it. I think he would bet sets twice because you so often hit this board strong enough to continue, so I think this line is most likely AK when he squeezes pre and takes this line. It's a gross spot.
Bet turn, trivial fold otr.
I don't have much to add on the analysis; reading the above has been useful so thank you to those who have contributed.
This thread has highlighted that there are some spots which look like they should be purely 1st level thinking, but on closer inspection need more thought. I had a spot yesterday which looked simple on the face of it, but after I snap-called AI on the Flop and won I thought I'd been far too hasty.
Good thread.
I agree! Thanks for your replies!!
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