River Value Bet Turned 3Bet Bluff

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River Value Bet Turned 3Bet Bluff

SB: $28.07
BB: $33.65
Villain is unknown to me and isn't on any of the other 3 tables I'm playing on. He was sitting alone on one table in the lobby and I sat less than a minute ago.
Preflop ($0.35) (2 Players)
Hero was dealt T Q
SB raises $0.50 to $0.75, Hero calls $0.25
Flop ($1.10) 2 Q A (2 Players)
Hero checks, SB bets $0.66, Hero calls $0.66
Turn ($2.42) J (2 Players)
Hero checks, SB checks
River ($2.42) 9 (2 Players)
Hero bets $0.40, SB raises $3.00 to $3.40, Hero raises $9.99 to $13.39
Note: River action is Lead $0.40, think and raise to $3, insta 3Bet to $9.99
PS: I haven't played since BF so I may suck. :D

5 Comments

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benzooka 12 years, 5 months ago
First, something seems wrong with your hand history with the pre flop raise sizes. If you used the sites hand converted and it's a bug, please report it.

Second, I'm not a heads up player, so I'm not in touch with any of the trends.

It seems to me one of three things is happening on the river:

I'm going to make the assumption he close to never checks back the turn with anything better than A8? And probably bets the weaker Ax hands something like half the time? He's probably also betting his turned flush draws a majority of the time.

1) he's been induced to bluff
2) induced to value bet light with a hand that was scared to bet the turn but beats us, or
3) the river gave him a strong hand.

in case 1 rebluffing him has just as much value as calling. This part of his range seems pretty wide if you induce any river bluffs as nearly his entire range of air makes it to the river in this fashion.

in case 2 turning our hand into a bluff 3bet gets a lot of folds. The problem is his range for thin value hands that make it to the river is so narrow already before even considering his thought process would have to be to go for thin value with a pot sized river raise on a river card that doesn't improve this part of his range. This seems even less likely given he would have to have displayed a tendency against going for thin value by checking back the river He also has to decline the deliciously priced bet size with his moderate show down value. This range seems almost non-existent.

in case 3 almost no matter what his cards are that improved on the river, 2 pair, straight, flush draw, I think it's a spot where at lower stakes people are going to talk themselves into a call because psychologically they already feel we're trying to be tricky from our lead, and feel this part of their range is so disguised by their turn check we can be trying to bluff them off. So reraising is just burning money here. This range is pretty thin here too: a passively played turned back door flush draw/T8, 99, Q9 and J9.

It seems like it's a pretty easy call once he raises the river.

Phil Galfond 12 years, 5 months ago
Hmm. I don't know exactly the average caliber of player here. I think that your river bet can be larger and still for value. He's unlikely to check back turn with Ax or a flushdraw or two pair, so 9s up is almost all that you lose to. Perhaps T8.

Given the above assumptions, he's unlikely to be raising with a straight or better, meaning his range should be capped around Q9 like 80+% of the time?

So, is he folding J9? If it's very likely, great play... especially since he'll also fold bluffs (which is huge if your alternative option was folding)

I think calling may be an option though too. His range to cbet flop and ck turn is extremely wide/weak, so he's pouncing on a block bet often enough to pick him off I think,
Sean Lefort 12 years, 5 months ago
I think this hand's actually very interesting. Unlike Phil, I'm not convinced that there's a whole lot of value on the river with a regular sized bet. Villain likely doesn't have a whole lot of worse QX as many of them chk the flop (although this is pretty player dependent). His JX (and worse) is basically only beating a hand Hero is turning into a bluff (as there's not a single hand in Hero's range at this point without some SD-value) which is pretty much limited to exactly 33-88 if they're also played this way both pf and on flop. I also think it should be noted that villain shows up on the river v. a bet with a weak AX a whole lot more than you think at these stakes.

I do agree that villain's range is pretty capped (although not completely) in that he's going to have nut hands very seldomly. Although I do think he does have them a significantly non-zero % of the time. It's important to note that at these stakes, a lot of players tend to think one street at a time. Sure, he turns a flush draw.. but Hero's hand looks very much like AX, and thus likely not folding to a turn bet. For some players, this is enough to make them check back the turn with 86ss.

That being said, I think my river play is to chk/raise and expecting to have it chk'd down the majority of the time. It's early in the match and even if it's marginally +EV for you to bet, it's very possible that it's even +'er EV to get to see his hand at showdown. If it's chkd down he shows up with 77 or 63o, you instantly learn a ton of information about a villain you're currently very uninformed about.
Sean Lefort 12 years, 5 months ago
I should add a little more justification for the CR line. I don't expect villain to bluff the river enough to make a chk/call profitable and even if he is, we still have a ton of better hands we can use to call. I expect his river betting range to be {v small % of flushes and T8 for the straight, Q9/J9/92, the odd AX, a few bluffs} against which I think we can get more than enough folds to make a CR profitable.
James Hudson 12 years, 5 months ago
*grunch* I hate this. There's a few reasons I don't think this is going to be a great play. The first, against a random unknown I don't think that you can just assume that he'll auto barrel flush draws which uncaps his range and makes this less appealing. Secondly, you have no blockers to any of the hands that he's representing with the exception of Q9 but ideally we'd like to be able to block some combos of flushes here. I also think that many players are actually somewhat afraid to bluff raise blocking bets because you know that your bet looks weak and should therefore be expecting to get raised a decent amount. There's also the fact that especially at lower stakes people tend to be pretty nitty with regards to thin value raises on the river which likely makes his raising range here more polarized that you'd probably think. It really wouldn't surprise me to see villain call with a hand as strong as A9 here though your sizing does make it more likely that he'd raise a hand like that. I think it's also tough for you to get looked up light in this spot when you bet the river making it perhaps more appealing to check call and hope for a desperation bet check bet bluff.

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