River spot with 2nd pair

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River spot with 2nd pair

***** Hand History for Game 5311984623367 ***** (On Game)
$100.00 USD NL Texas Hold'em - Sunday, March 10, 11:09:45 ET 2013
Table San Diego (Real Money)
Seat 6 is the button
Seat 1: _Blue Blood ( $99.00 USD )
Seat 2: needluck89 ( $155.00 USD )
Seat 5: IHATEAIK ( $106.03 USD )
Seat 6: RangesFFS ( $100.00 USD )
Seat 9: Djoko1980 ( $160.91 USD )
Djoko1980 posts small blind [$0.50 USD].
_Blue Blood posts big blind [$1.00 USD].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Djoko1980 [ Qh Jd ]
needluck89 folds
IHATEAIK folds
RangesFFS folds
Djoko1980 raises [$2.50 USD]
_Blue Blood calls [$2.00 USD]
** Dealing Flop ** [ Qd, 7h, 9c ]
Djoko1980 bets [$4.50 USD]
_Blue Blood calls [$4.50 USD]
** Dealing Turn ** [ 4c ]
Djoko1980 bets [$11.50 USD]
_Blue Blood calls [$11.50 USD]
** Dealing River ** [ Ks ]
Djoko1980 checks
_Blue Blood bets [$28.50 USD]
Djoko1980 calls [$28.50 USD]

Vilian is playing 22/18.2.9. He is defending 78 % in the BB vs steals. He is folding 44 % to cbets and 29 % to turn cbets.

Do you play river as me or do you b/f? c/f? So many options :) Feel like I couldn't fold river because I'm near the top of my range (or I'm I?) and he could be pretty light here on river.

3 Comments

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BigFiszh 12 years ago
Ongame Network $100.00 No Limit Hold'em - 5 players - http://www.handconverter.com/hands/2154106
The DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

BB: $99.00
UTG: $155.00
CO: $106.03
BTN: $100.00
Hero (SB): $160.91

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is SB with Qh Jd
3 folds, Hero raises to $3, BB calls $2

Flop: ($6.00) Qd 7h 9c (2 players)
Hero bets $4.50, BB calls $4.50

Turn: ($15.00) 4c (2 players)
Hero bets $11.50, BB calls $11.50

River: ($38.00) Ks (2 players)
Hero checks, BB bets $28.50, Hero calls $28.50

Given his tendencies he has to have a bunch of airballs on the river. I mean, if he defends 78% pre, folds 44% on the flop and 29% on the turn that means he´s getting with 78%*56%*71% = 31% to the river. That´s an insanely wide range - so I guess he´s either running hot like the sun or your sample size isn´t big enough or his plan is actually to wait for the river to take the pot down. So, given your stats are reliable over a larger sample I like your play. But in that case you should have some % on his river aggression?
James Hudson 12 years ago
I'm with Bigfiszh here. Given how wide he gets to the river I like check calling. I'd also assume that because he gets to the river as wide as he does that he's likely very capable of turning weak made hands into bluffs.
WM2K 12 years ago
This is a interesting spot. This is an ideal hand for our c/c range as its probably optimistic to bet for value and we have the effective nut queen (AQ likely 3 bets from villain). Problem is though not much missed and I bet he has to be turning a pair into a bluff to make this call. The only busted draw is T8, and a couple bad gutters that probably either raise or fold on or before the turn.

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