River spot - balance or most EV in the spot?

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River spot - balance or most EV in the spot?

***** Hand History for Game 5311795046693 ***** (On Game)
$100.00 USD NL Texas Hold'em - Saturday, March 09, 11:51:09 ET 2013
Table Differdingen (Real Money)
Seat 2 is the button
Seat 1: Aggrotilt ( $182.55 USD )
Seat 2: SpaceColonis ( $98.50 USD )
Seat 7: 888ARichmond ( $164.45 USD )
Seat 8: Jollyboy877 ( $179.65 USD )
Seat 9: Djoko1980 ( $103.00 USD )
Seat 10: 1364526 ( $126.71 USD )
888ARichmond posts small blind [$0.50 USD].
Jollyboy877 posts big blind [$1.00 USD].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Djoko1980 [ Jc Jh ]
Djoko1980 raises [$3.00 USD]
1364526 calls [$3.00 USD]
Aggrotilt folds
SpaceColonis folds
888ARichmond folds
Jollyboy877 folds
** Dealing Flop ** [ 4h, 8d, 6c ]
Djoko1980 bets [$5.50 USD]
1364526 calls [$5.50 USD]
** Dealing Turn ** [ 2s ]
Djoko1980 bets [$14.00 USD]
1364526 calls [$14.00 USD]
** Dealing River ** [ 8c ]

Villian is 21/17-2.7. Call open from UTG+1 is 11 %. Folding 44 % to cbets and 13 % to turn cbets. WTSD is 26 %.

So my question for this spot is: I don't really have any bluffs in this spot, so do I still value bet? Should I be thinking about balance here or just most EV in the spot?

2 Comments

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BigFiszh 12 years ago
If you bother with balance, your thought process should start on the turn, not the river. Think about what´s your barreling-range on the turn - and act accordingly. If you think he´s calling down too light - go ahead and barrel him 3x. If you think he´s double-floating with "air" and bluff the river - go ahead and bet, bet, x/c. If you think he´s calling flop and turn but never bluffs river and not even valuebet 99 (because he´s afraid you can´t call anything worse anyways) - bet, bet, x/f. If you think he´s floating the flop often - bet, check (with the intention to either x/r or x/c). And so on.

If you want to be balanced in your perceived range apart from all exploitative ideas (if you think that´s necessary in this spot) you should probably check the turn with your entire range and go from there.
WM2K 12 years ago
(QQ-88,66,44)@100,(AA,KK)@50 vs this we have 39% so value betting is going to be ultra thin even if this stove isnt totally accurate. Ya some sets may fastplay (although thats pretty bad on this board) and maybe he 3 bets KK+ 100% of the time preflop. However he may have a couple combos of 8x depending on how he values 87s and A8s.

I think its best to divide your ranges OTT. QQ+ should be a pretty clear value range. Add combos of 9Ts,A7s, A5s and maybe AK until you have enough bluffs. Then take your 8x hands, 99-JJ and c/c turn and c/f some OTR. Reads on how lite he s floating flop and betting turn/river will help you get the best action vs this villain. I m sure there are villains that c/c turn and c/f your whole range its best as they are not following up their bluffs nearly enough. I think JJ could go in the turn betting range as a bit of a merge too though.

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