River spot after bluff raising flop
Posted by luckykiwi
Posted by
luckykiwi
posted in
Low Stakes
River spot after bluff raising flop
UTG: 50.33
HJ: 138.33
CO: 100
BN: 108.51 (Hero)
SB: 102
BB: 168.21
HJ: 138.33
CO: 100
BN: 108.51 (Hero)
SB: 102
BB: 168.21
Preflop
(1.50)
(6 Players)
Hero was dealt
9
9
UTG folds, HJ folds, CO raises to 2.50, Hero calls 2.50, SB folds, BB calls 1.50
UTG folds, HJ folds, CO raises to 2.50, Hero calls 2.50, SB folds, BB calls 1.50
V 21/18/7 opens 30% CO cbets 73% in SRP, cbet 3way 57% in SRP, WTSD 31%
Flop
(8)
8
T
3
(3 Players)
BB checks,
CO bets 5,
Hero raises to 15,
BB folds,
CO calls 10
Turn
(38)
8
T
3
6
(2 Players)
CO checks,
Hero bets 19,
CO calls 19
Here I don't bet bigger because is such a good card for my range that I prefer just betting smaller IP
River
(76)
8
T
3
6
J
(2 Players)
CO checks,
Hero checks
Would you shove this river?
Loading 6 Comments...
I don't understand why you would raise the flop. What are you trying to accomplish? if it was a bluff, it didn't work, so... what's left in his range?
Your turn bet is a little too small.
Shoving the river does rep clubs, and he likely has 1 pair with a big club or 2 pair, but villain looks like he calls too much (wtsd 31%).
I think a bigger problem is that your particular hand doesn't have great equity to be making this play. Having the King of clubs or 75o would have been significantly better, as villain would not need to fold nearly as much.
hey marco,
agree with marrek i would prefer to raise flop with something more marginal than 99, K of clubs , like call KJo with backdoors and bluff raise KQo. with KJo u can continue on more turns. Ax of clubs bluff raising also would be decent and gutters too. But all in all 3way better not to go crazy , so picking Kc or Ac would be totally fine!
as played postflop yeah WTSD could be a sign that he is a station, i would like also to check his W$SD stats as well if it is poor i am definitely not shipping it
alright, so here just call and continue on good turns to potentially turn our hand into a bluff on a river check?
OP since we're helping u to analyze the HH. I want to hear your reasonings on
1)why u raised FLop
2) WHy you prefer to turn the hand to bluff OTR, when ur hand has decent SD equity.
By analyzing ur own questions/reasonings, u'll better understand the concepts of Poker.
Folding is always an option, and if not on the flop, certainly on the turn.
First thing think about what your range looks like when you raise the flop.You rep sets and combos, if i`m correct to assume you don`t flat 79s/T8s pre.
Now lets look at the villains range.He bets into 2 people which means he has a made hand most likely AT/overpair/set or a flush draw himself.Set would probably 3B on the flop this coordinated, so that leaves him with AT, overpairs and flush draws.Ott he`s continuing with made flushes, AcTx and probably only KK/QQ with a club.The river is a good card for you as it doesn`t improve his hand in any way (unless he`s a stubborn mule who`s gonna station JcTx), so if you were reping sets/flushes ott, you would have no problem shoving/betting this river.
Spewy as it is you just have to shove the river to be balanced here, but it all comes down to your image, his perception of it, and his calling/folding tendencies.As Marrek noticed, your play on the flop has no solid reasoning behind it, and bottom line you should just muck the hand on the flop, or flat and try to get to showdown.
I think not betting this river is a big mistake. It doesn`t matter that he has a big WTSD, he`ll just have way too many 1 pair hands that won`t withstand a triple barrel here. You raise a draw heavy flop multiway, the turn completes all the legit draws on the board, your range is super strong. But he`ll continue to call if he has room to improve (like KsKx for example), and those hands will make up way too big a portion of his range. So you have a ton of fold equity on the river.
Also, if you`ll play a flush like this, you`ll need to have some bluffs in your raise flop, bet turn and river range. And I can`t see a possible worse hand then 99 that you could get to the river with. So if you`re not bluffing 99, you`re never bluffing the river, being super unbalanced.
I also don`t like the flop raise as people have said already. Your equity is too poor when called and there are much better hands to do this with, like QJhh for example. Also, villain`s range for cbetting 3way on a draw heavy board like this is usually pretty strong.
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