I think you need to be very selective here and having a spade is perhaps bad enough to not choose to bluff this hand. QT does not have odds to call turn either so your range is capped compared to MP. T8o is probably not in your preflop range either.

If you were short stacked at 50bb or less you could raise much more aggro for value and this hand could fall insider the threshold of bluffing hands.

That would be one ballsy move! I think you can rep QT or T8 pretty strongly, so in theory it should have a good chance to succeed. You need 56% if you 3x it.

What I don't like is that villain is a total unkown, therefore we know nothing about his 3 barrell range and just how curious he is. Some players will not barrell lightly Kxx board vs unknown, because people hate folding top pairs. If he's only barrelling here with draws or KJ+ and will never fold a set, then you're basically folding out missed BDFD, which you actually block...

Kalupso, QT = T8 on the turn.

What do you think about 3x raising?

The play is call or shove here with a polarized range and about a pot raise left. Shove JJ+ sounds good.

oops, you're right... JT was a double gutter.

Depends on his 2barrel range if he barrels all QTs or just QsTs,
I think i would 2,25 - 2,5 x my raise size, given he is not capped.
using AsTs and Qs9s and some Ts9s that i'm not always 3bet(not all combo given i 3b some and xr some before) and xr 99 JJ QsTs

@Kalupso, i think first of all we raise/fold our bluff, and always raise call our value range when he repop.

It's not only a question of being ahead or behind, more your size is small more vilain has to defend(calldown) a bluffcatcheur to be unexploitable to a bluff, so you can xr thinly in value.

I don't think x/r 77 or maybe 99 is a good strategy if you shove, but if you make a small raise, i think it's okay, i don't have made the maths to confirm that, depends a lot on the size we're facing on the river, if the guy bet pot or half pot etc.. We must decide what nuts% he has in his value betting range, and how frequently he can potentielly bet/fold the river.
More than an exploitable point of view, it's just to create an effective general raising strategy.

Just imagine, how he could be hard to get x/small raise river when you hold a bluffcatcher. If you always fold those hand, you can get raped in the long run by his bluffs.
For me, in this type of spot, where the blokers effect is not dat much important, a smaller size is very powerfull, allows you to vb thinly, and you can potentielly kill the guy who always fold bluffcatcher here.

If you are in a spot, more like, you value Ahi flush, or you have Ahi flush blocker, you can raises a billiard of BBs no problem.
I just want to say that it's not so rare that the guy hold better than 77.

Noone will believe that you have QT here, and also T8 is debatable unless you have the combodraw OTT. JJ is somewhat legit, altough you 3bet some of those pre or fold turn maybe. And given that you already made clearly + EV plays on all streets, just fold when your range is capped.

Interesting hand and good discussion - but isn't this just one of those spots where we should be thinking "we can't win every hand" ?

A) we don't know about villain's triple barrel range or bet sizing tendencies
B) we don't know if villain can fold top top.
C) we block some of his bet-folding range

His small-ish turn bet and large-ish river bet suggests to me that the J helped him. It's not a natural card to bomb with a one-pair hand as it looks like it hits your range more than his.

If I were going to raise over a triple barrel I'd need a little more evidence that it would work.

yep in an exploitive point of view i m agree with u juicing