River line on bad runout

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Posted by posted in Mid Stakes

River line on bad runout

BN: lovbabylov: $200
SB: Hero: $287.52
BB: Onlevels: $297.42
UTG: 2000kg: $369.08
HJ: zachvac: $215.38
CO: archie_jones: $407.26
Preflop ($3.00) (6 Players)
Hero was dealt 3 A
2000kg folds, zachvac folds, archie_jones folds, lovbabylov folds, Hero raises to $6, Onlevels calls $4
Flop ($13.00) 3 T A (2 Players)
Hero bets $8, Onlevels calls $8
Thought about check-raising, but it doesn't really make sense.
I don't really have draws that would play this way, and I am very unlikely to c/r bluff this hand. Plus the fact that we're deeper makes me less inclines to, since I'll run into a better two a lot.

Turn ($29.00) 3 T A Q (2 Players)
Hero bets $22, Onlevels calls $22
So I bet for value again. He'd likely 3-bet AQ pre-flop, and he'll still call me with QT/Ax, maybe Tx, some kind of float that picked up a FD.
River ($73.00) 3 T A Q J (2 Players)
Hero bets $39, Onlevels raises to $100

I decide to make a thin value bet here.
He never has AK, so it has to be KT which I suppose could fold the turn, and KJ which could raise the turn given the stack depth.

He might hero call this with a worse two pair here, but then he jams.

Thoughts?

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