River Donk

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Posted by posted in Mid Stakes

River Donk

BN: $200
SB: $201 (Hero)
BB: $214.96
UTG: $268.37
HJ: $1155.02
CO: $200.19
Preflop ($3.00) (6 Players)
Hero was dealt J Q
UTG folds, HJ folds, CO raises to $6, BN folds, Hero calls $5, BB folds
Flop ($14.00) 2 Q 2 (2 Players)
Hero checks, CO bets $14, Hero calls $14
Turn ($42.00) 2 Q 2 9 (2 Players)
Hero checks, CO bets $34, Hero calls $34
River ($110.00) 2 Q 2 9 9 (2 Players)
Hero checks, CO checks
Final Pot
Hero has J Q CO has K K CO wins $107.20

I think villain will be checking back KQ-AA here constantly.  Neither of us should really hit the 9 so i pretty much view it as a brick .. i'm basically just thinking that i might get more value out of donking some flushes.  

Intuitively I want to say that a donking range would also increase the EV of the flushes in our checking range -- if our checking range became weak enough for him to v-bet ~AQ-AA.  But is this change in his strategy favorable to our range on the whole?  Our QJ enjoys when his AQ-AA checks river, and ~QJ hands make up a much higher distribution of our range than flushes OTR.  Again here i'm finding myself conflicted by:

1) playing what appears to be a better strategy with our flushes

but in the process

2) incentivizing villain to play a strategy that takes more EV away from our bluffcatchers


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