River decision with a set

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River decision with a set

http://weaktight.com/6681604 

villain 21/14/7 over 195

When he checks back the flop I exclude 55.  

His raise OTR seems to mostly rep slowplayed KK, JTs and maybe QQ.  We cool folding here? 

5 Comments

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Getready2rokk 10 years, 10 months ago

Dont think hes got TJ too much that one would cbet flop a ton i think. QQ is def possible, "tricky" played KK as well. Dont really get what bluffs he could have, maybe KTs turned into bluff or something but you verry rarely see that on micro's...


Rapha Nogueira 10 years, 10 months ago

I don't think JTs is much on the range of UTG but is certainly a candidate to play like this. I think it is a spot that you need to be balanced a lot. People aren't raising rivers in a very maniac fashion. On this ultra dry flop there is no reason to bet KK and raising turn probably would get action only by sets/weak 2 pair, because this board is super dry. Simply there isn't a bluff reasonable for him to follow this line, maybe AJ, considering that the J blocker will be great to JTs but I don't think people are using blockers on this fashion at this stakes very often. 

Disgusting fold the majority of the time simply because there's no plausible bluff at all on his range. 

notfamiliar 10 years, 10 months ago

I think he’s gonna
checkback QQ @ flop. So, 6 combos for sure.

Is he gonna raise it OTT? I don’t think so. Rainbow board, not many draws possible.
Not many hands to protect against.

Is he gonna raise it OTR?I think it’s quite possible.

Same about KK, except he’s checking back the flop for slowplay purposes.

What Kx he might be xb the flop with?

The one’s, that’s not strong enough to bet couple streets/to stand a raise (correct me
if I’m wrong on this) Given his stats, there aren’t many of them (mb Kts)

I think +1 for
crying fold :(


m_zeal 10 years, 10 months ago

Don't forget 99 for value.  He might raise aj here on the river. So he has kk, qq, j10,99 for 13 possible value combos and we need to be good here 27%.  This means that he needs to have ~ 5 bluff combos, actually probably less as he doesnt play his nuts with this line every time so maybe 3-4 bluff combos.   All this too say I think it's close and you aren't making a big mistake either way.

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