River decision w/ QQ versus unknown regular
Posted by Aurelius
Posted by
Aurelius
posted in
Low Stakes
River decision w/ QQ versus unknown regular
HJ: $5.10
CO: $4.16
BN: $7.79
SB: $5.56
BB: $5
UTG: $7.38 (Hero)
CO: $4.16
BN: $7.79
SB: $5.56
BB: $5
UTG: $7.38 (Hero)
Preflop
($0.07)
(6 Players)
Hero was dealt
Q
Q
Hero raises to $0.15, HJ folds, CO calls $0.15, BN folds, SB folds, BB calls $0.10
Hero raises to $0.15, HJ folds, CO calls $0.15, BN folds, SB folds, BB calls $0.10
Flop
($0.47)
9
7
J
(3 Players)
BB checks,
Hero bets $0.35,
CO folds,
BB calls $0.35
Turn
($1.17)
9
7
J
4
(2 Players)
BB bets $0.85,
Hero calls $0.85
River
($2.87)
9
7
J
4
Q
(2 Players)
BB bets $3.65, and is all in,
Hero calls $3.65
So far, the villain is 12/12 but only after 7 hands. He seems tight, but has not bought in for 100BB. So not many reads in here.
How often does a player lead into the turn w/ a flush draw? I believed it didn't happen often. On the other hand, you see the weirdest lines at 5nl which can make me a bit confused at times what a player might do and might not do.
The river I thought was a tough decision but since I believed he rarely bets turn w/ FD i decided to call.
I don't think he has 8T often, also not a flush often (like mentioned). So, a set or two pair weirdly played seemed more logical to me.
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"How often does a player lead into the turn w/ a flush draw?" - I've seen that quite a few times actually, but they usually use a smaller betsize. I guess I raise the turn; I think that he would fast play all his sets on a flop like this, so I think that draws and maybe a weirdly played TP are a big part of his range. As played, I fold the river, as insane as it sounds. Overbets are usually pretty strong on the micros and I just don't see him bluffing here anything. I mean, he shouldn't even have any hands in his range that have so little equity now that they have to bluff. Or can you come up with a hand that he calls on this flop mw and now has to turn into a bluff to win the pot?
If we raise the turn, it seems all I am getting action from is two pair and sets. He can bluff his missed draws on the river and I can get value from Jx. Right?
I agree that overbets are strong. The question however is what our villain believes is strong. And my thought process on the river was something I heard in a video: "If we fold here with this hand (which is the strongest part of our range), what are we going to call with?"
TBH. I don't think most players at 5nl aren't so busy turning hands into bluffs. But I could be wrong. I only have +/- 10k hands 5nl experience so far :D
"If we fold here with this hand (which is the strongest part of our range), what are we going to call with?" - I've used this reasoning myself, but I'm not sure whether it can be applied to a value oriented, not hand reading individual at NL 5. If he never bluffs, we can (or rather have to) call very very tightly. Most Regs on the micros don't bluff rivers because they don't really know how to do that properly.
"If we raise the turn, it seems all I am getting action from is two pair
and sets. He can bluff his missed draws on the river and I can get value
from Jx. Right?" - I think that he calls a draw to a turn raise more often than he bluffs a busted draw on the river, but I might be mistaken. Plus, we don't want to be outdrawn or have a rivercard kill our action vs weaker hands like TPs.
Agreed. The trick to the micros is to usually believe these bets. Do you get bluffed off a hand sometimes? SOMEtimes. But not enough to make calling profitable overall. It seems exploitable to fold here, but NO ONE's trying to strategically exploit you. The one thing you can do to exploit the field is to not give them value when they hit. And they usually tell you when they hit. You can obv find anecdotal counterexamples, but not enough of them to make calling profitable.
forme it looks like 99 set nits play whos afraid you chback OTT
clear call
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