river decision in 3b pot @50z
Posted by kozzy
Posted by
kozzy
posted in
Low Stakes
river decision in 3b pot @50z
Blinds: $0.25/$0.50 (6 Players)
BN: $69.36
SB: $64.25
BB: $51.59
UTG: $69.23
MP: $52.35
CO: $68.69 (Hero)
SB: $64.25
BB: $51.59
UTG: $69.23
MP: $52.35
CO: $68.69 (Hero)
Preflop
($0.75)
Hero is CO with
A
6
, , , , ,
villain is reg, 2.2k hands, 23/19/8 77% cbet in 3b pot oop, WTSD 26, WWSF 41, WonSDbig 40
Flop
($10.50)
2
6
3
,
Turn
($20.48)
2
6
3
Q
,
River
($49.62)
2
6
3
Q
4
,
Whats our bottom of calling range otr? I'm much more inclined to call this rather than something like TT. Also is this decision close enough to take into account blockers or is better to fold all bluffcatchers vs avg reg @50z? Thank you for your opinion.
PS. I perceive this run out as run out where villain has natural bluffs
Loading 5 Comments...
I'm mostly just folding my bluffcatchers when a regular triple barrels in a 3bet pot. It's hard to justify assuming that villain would go overboard with his bluffing frequency in a spot like this.
Hey kozzy
Everything up to the river is obviously fine and standard. Somewhat noteworthy that villain used a roughly half pot bet otf, if you had some reads on his flop strategy (whether or not he will use multiple bet sizes) we could maybe read into this and assume he will have a higher frequency of lower overpairs than the AA-QQ as opposed to seeing a 25% or 33% bet.
I agree that this is a much better bluff catcher than the 77-JJ. We block AA, AQ and A5s and unblock his bluffs which will be the suited JT987 region. He will occasionally bluff off AJ and AT as well as AK like this but it should happen with a much lower frequency than the undercards to the Q, especially since he is using the larger bet sizes. If we wanted to defend properly vs this bet our obvious calls would be all the Qx, A5dd, 65s, 54s(depending on how wide you're defending preflop), as well as all of our remaining sets. We will also have a bunch of bricked FDs and the JJ-77 region over which, again, our A6 will make a better call. So if we are facing a balanced strategy we are most likely calling off the A6s. That being said I agree with Samu Patronen that this is a somewhat difficult spot to bluff enough for our opponent. He will need to be good enough to realize that he has to bluff his JT987 region with a very high frequency, since he should have a very high frequency of AA-QQ, A5s and AQo included in this line. However, if he starts including a lot of his AKo in these larger bet sizing ranges on the flop and turn, which I think would be a uncommon, we would have a pretty easy call. The AKo combos alone should make for enough river bluffs and AK does make a very good river bluff (not so much on the turn) since we are likely folding a bunch of our JJ-77 stuff and of course calling AQ and KQ.
Cheers.
against 41% wwsf turn is a very easy fold. Villain is basically a postflop nit
agreed, the spot is much closer with 48-50% wwsf
Yep, that 41% WWSF should make a ton of decisions like this fairly easy against this opponent.
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