River Decision Facing Lead on Paired Board/Flushed River Live 1-3
Posted by Ryan
Posted by
Ryan
posted in
Mid Stakes
River Decision Facing Lead on Paired Board/Flushed River Live 1-3
Live 1-3
Loose passive guy in his 40's limps UTG and has $140 stack
Hero raises AdAs to $18 on button covering
Flop Jd 9d Jh
Heads Up
Pot = $34
Flop checks through
Turn 4h
He checks
Hero bets $25
He calls
River 6d
Pot = $83
UTG leads $50(2 green chips)
Hero?
It's super concerning when the flush comes in and we are being lead into, particularly in a live situation. However, holding the Ad in hand, we do block a large portion of villains flushes.
Something I have noticed as well, is I have seen this player make very small bets in multiway pots on the river w 3rd pair/2nd pair type holdings, for seemingly no reason.(maybe he thinks he is blocking a bigger bet?) It's definitely concerning that maybe a J could play this way, some flushes, but then again, if he is C/Cing with some FD's on the turn here, he can definitely have missed combos, and maybe even some OESD. I'm tempted to say that AA holding a D for the blocker is just a call, and maybe we look to fold combos with no diamond. I don't have a strong read on this player, but think my reasoning is reasonable. Curious if anyone disagree's or has interesting thoughts on this spot.
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I just pay them off here. Thought about turning AA into a bluff on the river, but it is too strong. I do not like your flop check here, live poker is best just to bet vs wide limp calling ranges. Probably bet bet check line for 1\3 to 1\2 pot.
Flop won't get raised often enough to deincentivize small cbets. 25%-33% OTF. Then OTT I would (exploitatively) use 33% again to force him into tough spot with many hands. I would use this size with any hands that bet as well. again, I don't think they will attack these bets often enough to merit choosing any other size.
As played OTF, turn I would use 33% pot. He has already shown weakness and is unlikely to have much equity here. You can bet small to get value from very small hands.
As played OTT, call river. I think you see a lot of nutted hands with this line but I also believe that players spazz often enough at this level to call here. Ad helps the decision.
I think checking flop makes alot of sense to keep players range wide, allowing us to reap value from a few hands that may stab/allow weak hands to hit a pair/equity we can then value bet. it also allows us to use a bigger sizing on later streets to get clean value when check too, as when we flop check and then bet turn, alot of live players are going to assume we have nothing because a J or overpair would bet the flop. I think the idea of betting flop and turn is also reasonable as well as yall are suggesting
More value in betting small. If you node-lock in a solver for players not check-raising often enough it will always stab. Denying equity is much more valuable than villain betting after you check-back.
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