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River decision after different flop line

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Posted by posted in Low Stakes

River decision after different flop line

SB: $38.08
BB: $100
UTG: $107.87
HJ: $125.87
CO: $100 (Hero)
BN: $80
29/23 120 hands
Preflop ($1.50) (6 Players)
Hero was dealt A K
UTG raises to $3, HJ folds, Hero calls $3, BN folds, SB folds, BB folds
Flop ($7.50) 6 2 K (2 Players)
UTG bets $5.15, Hero raises to $16, UTG calls $10.85
Obvs standard to call flop but kinda felt like i can get a lot of value from worse by raising here and he very rarely has better. Hes gonna put me on a tonne of draws and then value hands of like 66 and 22 pretty much exclusively
Turn ($39.50) 6 2 K Q (2 Players)
UTG checks, Hero checks
He has KQ a decentish amount of the time also some QQ and in general just felt like this was a good river to PC
River ($39.50) 6 2 K Q Q (2 Players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $29, UTG raises to $88.87, and is all in
Pretty good river for us go for some value and he check raises.

Feel like this has to be KQ and QQ exactly for value, i would expect most of his sets to 3b the flop and KK is unlikely since i block it obvs (even though 1 combo of KK and QQ) so im pretty confused at this point :)

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