River decision
Posted by DontRunItOnce
Posted by
DontRunItOnce
posted in
Low Stakes
River decision
Blinds: $0.02/$0.05 (6 Players)
BN: $6.62
SB: $13.35
BB: $5.05
UTG: $10.41 (Hero)
MP: $3.33
CO: $15.93
SB: $13.35
BB: $5.05
UTG: $10.41 (Hero)
MP: $3.33
CO: $15.93
Preflop
($0.07)
Hero is UTG with
A
A
, , ,
Flop
($0.41)
5
8
K
,
Turn
($1.05)
5
8
K
T
,
River
($2.63)
5
8
K
T
Q
, ,
Final Pot
CO wins $2.52
Rake is $0.11
Rake is $0.11
Is this a call or fold? I was thinking about X/C on the river if he sized it small but in hindsight, given that I OR from UTG and bet bet on the large size, this kind of tells him that I have AK+. This then sets him up to play perfect against me on the river. So since the Qd brings in straights, Two pairs and BD flush then he must of known he had fold equity with a larger bet. I ran some numbers and it seemed like a clear call but I'm seriously unsure whether I'm right or not.
Loading 7 Comments...
Good solid play, wp.
In nl 5, villain can v-bet kj or AK. Many ppl will call twice IP with flushdraws and 67. So I frankly believe calling is mandatory.
Calling is mandatory if you want to stay at nl 5 for the rest of your life :D how bad should people play to value bet KJ here?? AK? not for this sizing and we block it anyways. He has 67spades 1 combo of draw with no pair that get to the river, and count how many combos he has of two pair and better at this point.
If it wasnt nl5, he will probably be turning hands like 9Tss, QJss into a bluff, but its super rare for nl5 player so I would discount those. If we think hes super straight forward player he should only have KQ, QQ, J9ss here for value, no way he can get with AJ (cause we block A spades) and if we know hes capable of turning something into a bluff then its probably becomes close. But I dont think we can make either one of those assumptions so ch/f to this sizing is pretty standart, I could see betting like 1/3 pot as an option here otr too.
" how bad should people play to value bet KJ here?? AK?" Is this really a question, have you seen some of the play being made at the micros. That said, the general assumption that nl 5 players underbluff in certain spots is also untrue. I also see players raising KT OTT more often because of the draw heavyness.
You could make "this is nl5=> bet/fold even this river" argument.
As a default, I'd assume that nl5 players are way more passive than we expect and way underbluff, so tbh I dont agree that we can call once we check.
Fwiw I like your line and I think that vbetting river would be somewhat too thin
Well played!
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