river call or bluffraise

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Posted by posted in Low Stakes

river call or bluffraise

SB: $56.37
BB: $56.94
HJ: $42.75
CO: $81.45
BN: $53.76 (Hero)
Seat 5: Player5 ( $56.37 USD ) - VPIP: 17, PFR: 12, 3B: 7, AF: 3.0, Hands: 742
good reg(NL100-200)
i have only one note :he 3barrel air after i miss cb on 84K8J


SB 3bet only 5% BB 10% [co 3%,BTN 8%] (low sample than we can think he can have like 6%sb 3bet)

Preflop ($0.75) (5 Players)
Hero was dealt 7 7
HJ folds, CO folds, Hero raises to $1.50, SB raises to $4.75, BB folds, Hero calls $3.50
Flop ($10.50) 9 Q K (2 Players)
SB checks, Hero checks
board hit me range well and he dont cb, do you stab here or not?
his range for not cb could be :88-JJ,Ax bluffs,QJ,T9 (not sure how he think this board hit my range)
Turn ($10.50) 3 (2 Players)
SB checks, Hero checks
i think we can discount some Ax,he will try bluff sometimes and with QJ he will bet for value/protect
88-JJ and 9x and some part of Ax bluff are still here?
Stab?
River ($10.50) 3 (2 Players)
SB bets $8, Hero raises to $21.25

his range is weak ,but not totally and my 77 win sometimes ,can be +ev call ,but raise looks like much better move.only problem is i dont represent nothing at all (only A3,43)

but still my value range is tinny ,do you think he can make hero call with JJ,TT?

3 Comments

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Bronson 11 years, 1 month ago

i don't think he's betting 80% pot for thin value (JJ, TT, QJ) and you just rep A3,  so a raise doesn't really accomplish; you're probably just making him fold hands that you beat.

i would just fold river without more stats or a dynamic 

you don't need to defend 77 preflop vs this guy, i know i would be loosing money with this call



Attrition 11 years, 1 month ago

^ agree w bronson. defending 77 here is most likely going to be a losing call.

RootBeerGuy also makes a good point in that you rep nothing but I just wanted to add that vs some non-thinking players this might work because ppl just assume a river x/r is the nuts all the time. but I think making this a habit is going to be harder and harder to get away w as we move up in stakes cause we rep such a small value range. 

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