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River call?

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Posted by posted in High Stakes

River call?

BN: $1584.97
SB: $1155.32
BB: $1017.94
UTG: $1284.76
HJ: $1042.11
CO: $1135.44 (Hero)
BTN is a reg. Haven't played much against him.
Preflop ($15.00) (6 Players)
Hero was dealt J K
UTG folds, HJ folds, Hero raises to $25, BN calls $25, SB folds, BB folds
Flop ($65.00) 7 J T (2 Players)
Hero bets $44.69, BN calls $44.69
Don't like the c-bet in retrospect. I should be checking a lot here.
Certainly not horrible though.
Turn ($154.38) 7 J T A (2 Players)
Hero bets $108.99, BN calls $108.99
Here's where the spewings starts. AJ and AT make sense, but he also has lots of worse hands.
He's not going raise two pair, so I can control the action better by betting. C/c allows me to get owned very easily.

Kind of a merged bet where I'm planning on bluffing some rivers, and checking a lot of them.
River ($372.36) 7 J T A K (2 Players)
Hero checks, BN bets $247.47
Don't see any reason to bet now.
Spades missed, and I don't block any. I know this guy is definitely capable of turning hands into a bluff here.
Also got the Jd blocker, which is probably the best blocker in the deck here.

Thoughts?

7 Comments

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Numbers 10 years, 8 months ago
Don't we have some AdX combos we can x/shove rvr with ? like the idea but think we got better hands to x/shove in this spot.
oblioo 10 years, 8 months ago

I'd def check flop, but as played you also block Qx so I guess call if he can bluff with enough hands here (which seems v quesiotable). I hate shoving. 



Leatherass 10 years, 8 months ago

How likely do you think he is to flat the turn with KQ? Does he have all of the KQo hands here? If the blinds aren't very squeeze happy, he might flat with that hand a lot. He is also likely to have quite a few combos of Adxd as well. QsTs, KsTs make sense. KsTs can't be 100% turning itself into a bluff. And if he is auto turning hands into bluffs, some of them beat you! I like a check fold here on the river as played. I much prefer a flop check. I think the turn lead is debatable.


What hands will he very often turn into a bluff that you beat? Ts9s, 7s8s I'd presume. What else are we auto turning into a bluff here? Obviously any hand potentially, but how many are you almost always turning into a bluff? I can think of only those two hands that I would 100% of the time bluff with.

AF3 10 years, 8 months ago

If you hadn't have bet the turn, I would've liked a river check-raise, possibly even on the turn (but that seems kind of silly).  Whatever you do, I don't think the BTN should be able to value-bet Qx here, and certainly not any worse.  That would lean towards raise or fold, so probably fold. 

Alex W. 10 years, 8 months ago

I think on this specific run out it's so hard for him to show up with bluffs (even if he's turning some pairs into bluffs) that we just happily fold an "exploitable" amount on this river.  We could do a CRev sim to figure out exactly how wide he needs to be peeling all streets to show up here with enough bluffs that we can fold, but I don't think it's really necessary.  In practice I think it's a clear fold.

Nick Howard 10 years, 7 months ago

i feel like betting turn is a pretty big mistake.  i'd be surprised if we were at a big enough range advantage to justify unpolarizing the value-betting range this much 

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