River Bluff Catch?
Posted by UpUpAndAway
Posted by
UpUpAndAway
posted in
Mid Stakes
River Bluff Catch?
$2/$4 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 4 Players
SB: $829.65 (207.4 bb)
BB: $414 (103.5 bb)
CO: $403 (100.8 bb)
Hero (BTN): $430.90 (107.7 bb)
Preflop: Hero is BTN with Jd 9h
CO folds, Hero raises to $10, SB folds, BB calls $6
BB is a multitabling decent 25/21ish reg. He doesn't get out of line too often at all but isn't incapable of doing so.
Flop: ($22) 9c 6s 4d (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $14, BB calls $14
Turn: ($50) 5d (2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks
River: ($50) Kh (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $36, BB raises to $123
$87 to call, pot is $209.
Thoughts on any street appreciated, I'll hold off on my thoughts until I get a few responses!
Loading 7 Comments...
that king is a trap card and i wouldn't bet it ever, as a bluff or for value. his value range is loaded and can x/r raise river with sets/straights after you checked turn. as played id fold
With this hand I prefer betting turn rather than checking, because of like protection.. Rather check pairs with some kind of draw, if we had like 98 for example because it got a straight draw. This hand should be a value bet on the turn imo .. He got worse 9s, pairs+draws etc.. Still some value there imo.. Lots of scary cards so like not seeing a river isn't that bad.
i think this is worse hand you are value betting in that spot (beside T9 maybe) so I would fold as calling it would be overdefending vs c/r. I also like line, i dont think its good to bet turn as it is good card for BB's range so we should xback most of 9x
i think It depends if he has tedencies to turn hands into bluffs like 98 /T8 which are reasonable calls and how willingly he is to fight for pots otr. My assumption here is that most players wont be perfectly balanced here so its a spot you would need to have a read from preflop if you think he has more Kx combos that could play this way.You mentioned as well he is a multitable reg so he should have his own default rules to be as "gto" as possible. I think after betting vs a reg like this,we would have to call half of the time or else betting wouldn't have make sense. As played,i would have check behind because we block 9x and the lower parts of his range of 9x(98/97) could bluff sometimes.He shouldnt be calling with much 6x here as well.
Looking forward to hear what you think =)
think the turn is close, and depends on his c/r frequency. if he will c/r hands like 76 75 or 74s A7s A3s , and balance that with 87 55 65 54 then we definitely dont want to be betting. also, if he tends to not c/r flop but c/r turn with hands like 44 66 96s then we definitely dont want to let him.
tho some players will just flat a lot with 75 76 74s a3s a7s bc they have some SD value and therefore, some players might be totally nutted when they c/r turn, and make our fold very easy. But, j9 is marginal as he has all off suit combos of q9 k9 a9 and the hands we beat 97 98 have more equity versus us then we have versus q9 k9 a9.
on the river, i think he will have a lot of SD value hands that can turn into bluffs. 43s 74s 76 75 53s 85s 86s 63s T6s J6s Q6s, all of which may not want to bluff catch the river given he has a lot of off suit 9x to bluff catch. so, i might call if i think he will get out of control on river here turning hands into bluffs. i know i have the tendency to given how capped my opponent is.
Thanks for all the comments guys. So I wanted to find out if:
a) checking through the turn is better than betting
b) if the river is too thin of a value bet versus an opponent with a non-zero river checkraise bluff frequency
c) what hero's river calling range looks like
In this hand, BTN is one of the top 5 biggest winning regs on the site and I was actually the BB here. I checkraised the river with T6s and had villain snap call my raise which was definitely surprising considering I'm almost certain I don't get anywhere near out of line with river checkraise bluffs.
If I was villain and being honest, I would be betting the turn and checking back river almost always on this runout. And I would almost certainly be folding to the river checkraise against most opponents. A lot of your posts gave me a great prespective on how villain is percieving my play and range which was great as I was having a hard time finding out why he did what he did.
"When we bet the river in position, it reopens the betting and gives our opponent the opportunity to check-raise with balanced range of value hands and bluffs. And when he does this, both calling and folding with most of the hands in our range will have an expected value of zero meaning we’ll have effectively lost the hand. So notice that by bet-folding the river in position, we’llnot only lose our bet to hands which beat us, but our bet and thepot will also effectively be lost to hands which our opponentbluffs in a balanced check-raising range... that in order for in position value betting
to be superior to checking, our opponent must call with the losing
hand frequently enough to overcome the fact that we’ll sometimes
fold the best hand to our opponent’s check-raise bluffs." p335 APL NLH
Betting and calling would make sense if villain is unbalanced and overly bluffs x/R river or overly call with the losing hand .
"BTN is one of the top 5 biggest winning regs" could think of this - "nl400 it's the players understand the need to be aggressive, but not mature enough to balance. I am betting and calling, i want to bluff catch."
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