River bluff 25nlz
Posted by Tom Willetts
Posted by
Tom Willetts
posted in
Low Stakes
River bluff 25nlz
SB: $58.98
BB: $45.77
UTG: $27.80 (Hero)
MP: $52.41
CO: $51.17
I considered raising on the flop as I can have QQ and 99 here, but I think mixing in some calls with NFD works fine.
I'm going to have some sets and straights on the turn here as well as some overpairs, so I think this hand is a reasonable choice to bluff, I block AA, AQ and JT. Is he shoves turn I would call expecting to see some mixture of overpairs and weaker draws.
On the river same argument, I have plenty of value hands and he may fold hands like TT-JJ, 9x, J8/T8. I think KJss would shove turn and it's hard for him to find a call on the turn with other gutshots and A highs but not impossible that he has something like that.
I guess the parts of the hand I'm not sure about are whether I should be raising this flop wider and including this hand, and whether my turn sizing makes it harder to get people to fold anything on the river.
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I don't think that calling pre is good here, since villain is 3betting you out of BB versus your UTG raise. ATs is just too weak of a hand against his range.
As played.
I think he will have AA, KK a lot of the time in his range once he checks the turn. IMO that would be a reasonable play with those hands, since you wouldn't want to get raised, and things like JJ I think would go into his c/calling range OTF. To be honest, I don't really know whether you should bluff the river, or not. I guess you have to figure out, if he was able to fold over pair here, or not.
About that raising the flop part: you only have 6 value combos here, that you would want to raise, so people would be very suspicious if you did that. Calling is a fine play I think.
I agree with Basement Kid - I would check back turn to realize some of our equity here.
By Checking the turn we keep the villain's range wide and we also have a chance to improve to pretty much the nuts on the river. By betting the turn We fold out all hands that we beat, Get called/raised by all hands that beat us..
As stated - unless villain is capable of making a decent lay down of over pairs, id check back river as played.
I don't get this argument. I don't think there are really any hands we beat and keeping his range wide is a bad thing in that case. Aren't you essentially saying that he will fold a good amount to the turn bet and using that as an argument to check?
It's better if he has a stronger range on the river as in practice he's less likely to fold when we hit a spade as people tend to call too much with better absolute hand strength. this is the main reason I'm not sure about bluffing river. I have plenty of clear value bets so I'm not overbluffing, just think this might be a spot to exploitatively under bluff vs the population.
I tend to think when people use the 1/3 sizing in this sort of spot they are including hands like JJ (basically their whole range), maybe that's wrong? I think if he's checking more of those hands On The flop then my line here isn't great but when he does check I'm printing money.
River card doesn't change much for our range. i think we only have JT, QQ, 99, 44 and 88 in our value range here on the river if we shove. The question is at what frequency do we want to be bluffing here with our missed draws to balance this?
Do we really have 88 on the turn? I don't really see the value in calling 3rd pair in a UTG vs BB 3bet type of situation. We have much better hands to defend here.
Anyway.
I guess we want to base our decision, on how much villain is capable of folding on the river: if he is folding like 70% of his range then we want to bluff the hell out of him, and vice versa. The problem is, though that he has a strong range on the river. I don't think that he would want to be doing some kind of weird float, so his most likely holdings are something like: AA, KK, AQ, JJ, TT (?). So the question is: is he willing to fold this hands? If not, then we have a clear answer to what to do on the river.
First of all you should fold PF w/o any stats.
Second of all I xb turn, because:
1. I assume he won't fold Qx or overpairs even OTR.
2. We can still fold his AK/AJ if we bet small OTR. He shouldnt bluff OTR when you look like a SD value, or bluffcatcher.
Is it actually good to fold pre, or is that just using the "people don't bluff at 25nl" logic? I have a good suited A in position 110bb deep. Are most people only continuing AQ+, 88+ here? That surely gives villain a super good 3bet spot.
You're right that people are defending tight to a 3bet after raising UTG but take into consideration that we are also going to be opening much tighter UTG. Compare that to the button, if we were raising around 50% then only continuing AQ+, 88+ then yes BB has a very profitable 3bet but raising 15% UTG and continuing with AQ+, 88+ (around 5.5%) then we're not folding anywhere near as much.
Snowie calls pre-flop with ATs and Snowie is really tight. I'm not saying ATs should be an auto-call. It should depend on 3B'er range and UTG Range. Sometimes ATs should be an autocall and sometimes it should be an autofold and sometimes it should be a 4B.
Does Snowie knows V tendencies/frequencies.
Snowie assumes everyone is identical to Snowie.
Tom, what would you raise on this particular flop given pre flop action?
Maybe something like some sets and some strong draws, the occasional bluff (AsKx) and that's about it. Not sure if this is good or what, but I think it might be a spot where I have just enough strong hands to protect 2 ranges. Happy to be told I'm wrong though.
Tom, what is your estimate of BB 3B range vs UTG? (As either % or hand range and whether linear or polarised or mixture).
My impression is that people in the thread have radically different view of BB 3B range so discussion needs to begin with clarification of BB 3B range.
Tom, what is your UTG raise % that Villain would probably see on his HUD?
Tom, what is your preflop all-in range vs this BB assuming you were to 4B his 3B and then he shoved?
IMO, most BB 3B ranges vs UTG R are really tight and for value unless UTG opening raise is wide.
So the answer to your questions depend on the width of your opening range and the BB 3B'ing tendencies in your pool.
If you open wide and BB's 3B wide then it becomes more like a BB 3B vs CO spot and you can raise flop and get folds from a wider 3B'ing range. As played you can bet ATss FD on the Turn and get folds from enough of his wider range such as backdoor AXhh. On the river your hand is not a good bluffing hand because spades block the busted FD's you want Villain to hold and fold (although many of these should have led Turn but if so what is left as foldable in Villain's Turn check range especially after check/call). A better choice is AThh (BDFD on flop, not blocking spade FDs, blocking JT strt, blocking AQ TPTK) but it depends on your range as AT has some limited showdown value and there may be other zero showdown hands in your range that should bluff river instead such as KJhh.
If you open standard to tight and BB 3B is polar but mostly tight value then a flop raise is suicide and a turn bet into his strong checked range is suicide, too because BB simply has very little that isn't crushing your range.
If you bet Turn, sizing at 2/3 is fine as it sets up stacks for a river shove with about 85% river betsizing.
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