I think b/calling the flop is what gets us into trouble. Our hand is vulnerable to numerous runouts also we are basically guessing as to what runouts are good or bad for us. Against a guy raising flops at this frequency, we should have a plan as to what we should do w 99 after c-betting and getting raised (maybe checking as well) It's slightly high variance but I think the best play is to just go all in over his raise. We are getting him to fold hands like KJhh that have equity and will blow us out later on. He may raise gii w 66 and 77. Against flush draws we are meh but I think overall its still okay.

Had lots of tables so didn't see that stat in game but good Post imo

any ideas whether his raises are protection raises usually or more polarized raises? Like will he raise 8x or a hand like 77/66, or will he just raise sets and hands like T9s JTs (that can barrel) and some K7s A7s A6s. i think shoving the flop is best versus this guy because he has to have hands like KJs T9s JTs imo to get this stat up so high. and letting those hands either check back turn or shove when they turn equity, doesn't seem great to me. he should have about 170 behind and the pot will be about 160 on turn. i think just jamming for 233 on top of his 62 raise works best. It forces him to call with flush draws, which now can't like "buy himself a free river" by checking back turn (which is possible for a guy who raises this often). plus, it forces him to call with 8x if he chooses to raise that for protection, which you may not stack on certain run outs. further, he might raise some total air, and now those hands realize equity bc his total air is gunna be over card combos that can turn a hand some %

Also tho, think about ur range. this raise puts a lot of hands in ur range in a bad spot and will have to fold (depending on ur cbet freq of course but yea). so i think folding with 99 is sort of out of the question. and flatting as i feel i showed above, may not be best. so its a pretty nice spot to shove

Thx guys for good posts

In those kind of spots where we 3b OOP and get a draw heavy flop, what do you think about CB the pot, then overbet shove 1.5x OTT (when 100bb deep) ? It allows us to bluff more OTT, and decreases our positional disadvantage given that we play only 2 streets OOP rather than 3.

I'm not talking about that in an exploitation way, let's say vilain is a GTO player, do you think it's better to bet 0,5p OTF OTT and OTR, or 1p OTF then 1.5p OTT ?
Matthew Janda talked about this line in his book

Snowie comes out with calling turn being 0.01 EV (and obviously folding 0 EV), so I think it's fair to say that if villain is balanced then it's very close between call or fold. Guess you just have to go with your reads and how much credit you give him for a bluff in this spot based on any previous history.

(Incidentally it also advocates 50-50 between flatting and shoving over the flop raise)