raise, call or fold????
Posted by raiser_burn
Posted by
raiser_burn
posted in
Mid Stakes
raise, call or fold????
Villian is a agro fish, I have seen him bet 100 into a 75 dollar pot then 200 on the turn and fold for 160 more when he got raised. I have also seen him call off 150bb with just a ace 4 kicker to what was obviously a better hand. on a very straight coordinated board.
we are playing 2-5 full ring
Villian 900
hero 820
other players not so important
Villain opens for 35 utg +3, one flat, hero flats on button with 88.
Flop 2d 2s 4d
villian bets 150, fold, hero calls
Turn is a 5h
villian bets 300, hero ?
call raise or fold? If I call turn, hero leaves himself with 335 on the river.
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Mmmh... with the given image I probably had just shoved the flop; as played it´s getting really annoying, but with the given image he could still have a bare A, a flush draw or whatever.
Did you have the feeling that he got over-protective on 2-suited boards, that he might protect an overpair before flush / A hits?
Shoving flop really accomplishes nothing...
This is probably one of those spots where getting it in on the turn is fine if you a) expect him to barrel turn w/ all of his Ax's and flushdraws or OESD's, and b) not continue barreling off w/ them on the river if you call turn and he bricks. Your effectively getting value and protecting now since you don't gain anymore from those hands on un-improving rivers.
I feel like based on your reads of his frequencies, he's wide enough here that you can get it in with 88.
"Shoving flop really accomplishes nothing..."
That´s not true, imho. Villain could assume that we´re bluff-shipping and could call with A-high, which obviously is pretty unlikely once he bets the turn and we ship. Furthermore we´ll have a hard time shipping on any overcard on the turn, I mean, you aren´t shipping once the T+ hits, right? And what are we doing then? We call down and let him realize his entire equity.
He's getting 4-1 on the turn with his A high's where he often has 10 outs, so it's neutral EV for him, but based on the description it seems like he just wants to get it in.
Assuming hero is protecting his flop ca range with enough overcard floats, we shouldn't be too worried about being exploited on T+ turns.
Why do you want to offer him a neutral EV spot on the turn where he can make absolutely no mistakes instead of giving him the chance to make a giant mistake on the flop? It´s not as if we´re crushed against his flop-betting-range.
Agree we're doing fairly well vs his flop betting range. However, I don't see the point in making all of his 6 out bluffs just fold the flop. With a flop call, we gain a second bet on turns from his bet/folding range that would often just be bet/folding flop. (Hands like broadways, gutters, etc), To me this seems like a spot where if folding is out of the question, the best way to maximize our EV is to gain as much from the over card (air) portions of his range. I think we do this best by calling flop rather than raising.
OK, I created a very small and easy model in CREV. I gave Villain a top-30%-open-range and a cbetting-range of any pair, any broadways, any flush draw - what comes down to like 70%. Then I created two branches, one for shoving and Villain calling with any pair, any fd and another one for calling and Villain betting like he did with his entire range, we shove on any board texture and Villain calls with any mid pair+, broadways with Ax and flush draws.
It shows that shoving the flop yields a profit of 32 bb for Hero and flatting and shoving any turn makes profit of 70 bb. Sounds as if flatting is way better. But two things to consider:
1) The EV is calculated on the turn, meaning you have to subtract the invest of 30bb for calling the flopbet, which makes shoving the turn just 8 bb better than shoving flop.
2) I assumed that Villain is betting any two on the turn, we´re shoving any turncard (including diamonds, A, K, etc.) and Villain calls it off with any mid pair (which might mean he calls with 55 on A-turn), flush draws and Ax. Neither of those 3 options is particularly likely imho, even less in that combination, so I think we can be very sure that our EV on the turn will go down drastically.
as i mentioned before, villian has called off 150 bb with "A (4 kicker)" he has the ability to call off super light. so I do not see him folding any turn shoves after he bets 300 with any equity in the hand. I do however see a downside in shoving flop, because you take away all of his turn bluffing range if you shove flop, any hand that will continue with on the flop will definately continue with on turn no? My question now is..................... is there any instance where the turn is ever a fold?
" I do however see a downside in shoving flop, because you take away all of his turn bluffing range if you shove flop ..."
I addressed this point?
"That´s not true, imho. Villain could assume that we´re bluff-shipping and could call with A-high,"
I really don't understnd why we would shove the flop. We are only getting called by worse (unless he makes a donkey hero call) and we are eliminating his very likelyhodd of bluffing on further streets (OPs reads of him sounds like this sound likely).
This just seems like a very classic spot to be doing a lot of calling and very little folding :D.
You can almost never fold this turn.
Calling or Raising are both reasonable here.
150bb deep fullring think id fold turn and tell no-one
From the description the only hand I really fear at this point is A3 or A2. It seems he may be capable of opening with either hand and certainly will put his money in on a gut shot draw. I guess he could have over pair. But seeing how light he gets it in I think I shove the turn. I do not shove flop because I think with a big draw (diamonds) he calls 100% of the time. Once the turn hits it really hurts his odds for his draws. Does he put $335 in on your 3 bet on the turn with a draw and only one to come?
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