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Questionable fold tough spot with a set

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Posted by posted in Mid Stakes

Questionable fold tough spot with a set

This was a live hand at 200NL so I don't have stats.

background info: hero is a tight 14/8 regular. villain is also a tight player he is a pro his main game is MTTs and 500NL.

Hero starts hand with 450$
villain starts hand with 420$.

at a fairly tight passive table, mid position opens the pot at 10$ CO calls, villain calls on the button and Hero calls in sb with 8c8s and BB completes.

5 way to the flop with 51$ in pot.

flop comes 8c9sJc, hero checks, original raiser checks, CO checks and villain bets 25$ on the button. Hero raises to 80$ everyone folds back to villain. who tanks for half a minute and ships it for 300$ ontop of the 80.

Villain is a very tight player who doesn't get out of line with any of his draws and would not take this line with any of his draw range including combo draws.

I tank folded because 80% of the range he shows up in this spot with has me beat. only combos I have beat are his two pair combos.

Im looking for some opinions on the overall hand what would you do differently and would you fold In this spot?

5 Comments

Loading 5 Comments...

mplecki23 11 years, 11 months ago
Well
Hand 0: 34.934% 34.03% 00.90% 29986 794.50 { 88 }
Hand 1: 65.066% 64.16% 00.90% 56535 794.50 { JJ, 99, QTs, J9s-J8s, T7s, 98s, QTo }

Would match your description. Adding T7o actually bumps your equity 0.1%.

Pot 51+25+80+380=536, call 300 to win 536+300 means we need 35.8%. I would call here since he will have a bluff some % of the time, or some semi bluff.
Parker Muir 11 years, 11 months ago
Agree I'd call here as well, mplecki's range pretty much nails it.

Also could he ever have a slowplayed QQ or AA here? I know some live players enjoy doing "tricky" stuff like that.
Edichka1 11 years, 11 months ago
I think that in a live game a GOOD tight reg would 3bet JJ iP vs. mid position open, especially if he is a PRO with the table dynamics you have given us, if its a passive table then you have a lot of check folding going on so he would iso vs weaker players
If your not willing to stack off here with bottom set then maybe a c/c c/c and evaluate river is a better line.

I agree with the range that mplecki23 has posted I would only add 109c to it.

As played I call.
Chubs 11 years, 11 months ago

Thanks for the analysis guys, appreciate it. he later told me he had 7 10 but Im not sure if he was telling the truth.

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