Question to GameTheory
Posted by follow2dream
Posted by
follow2dream
posted in
Low Stakes
Question to GameTheory
Hey.
I wonder how calculate optimal flop bluff/value ratio if i'm goin to bet bet bet 3/4 3 street.
OTR villain need 30% eq for call, so i can't bluff more often than 30% times, and ratio looks like 0.7/0.3 (value/bluff).
As it is now on the river, go to the flop?
Loading 11 Comments...
"After correcting the numbers this becomes a 34% value and 66% bluff on the flop, which is far less vulnerable."
Can you explain how these figures?
Are this 34% its (0.7)^3 ???
Assume that you have nuts / air and Villain has a bluffcatcher - nobody of you has equity to improve after the flop. You barrel three streets with 0.75p on each street (p is potsize on the flop).
So you bet 0.75p on the flop, 1.875p on the turn and 4.6875p on the river. The total pot on the river is
8.3125p, Villain has to call a total of
7.3125 over the three streets to bluffcatch you. That means, he needs 47% equity, so you can afford a value:bluff-ratio of 53:47.
Obviously this is just a theoretical baseline, as your bluffs mostly have equity and/or Villain´s bluffcatchers have equity vs. your valuehands, which makes a precise calculation impossible.
Thx, for answer but it seems to me a mistake in your calculations.
I am wondering where are the numbers 34% value and 66% bluff
OK, it seems as if I misunderstood your question. Will come back to that later ...
If you're range is perfectly polarized (0% hands and 100% hands) and equity cannot change during the hand and villain only calls, you should bet OTR 70% value and 30% bluffs. to make villain's call 0EV, also to make our opponent indiffrent to call our turn bet we must bet 70% of the time on the river w/range that has 70% value and 30% bluffs), and the same goes to a turn bet. So our flop value% will be: (% of river value bets)(river bet %)(turn bet%) 70%x70%x70% =~34%. The result is this that every time we bet R w/balanced range we automaticlly win the hand (because villain is indifferent of calling and folding), so all of our R bluffs, are value bets on the T. And the same goes to the flop. This number will greatly change depending on equity of our bluffs and value bets, and our position. I hope i got it right:) forgive me for me english.
If the game is purely static and you have nuts/air and your opponent always has a bluffcatcher and you can bet 3/4 pot exactly 3 times and you cannot get raised etc then we have the following situation:
On the river you can bet 3 bluff combos for every 7 value combos, assume you have 7 value combos and that there are not relevant card removal effects.
If your range on the river is 10 combos, you will bet your entire range. And hence your opponent will be indifferent between calling and folding, so the value of his bluffcatchers is exactly 0.
Now if you make your turn range 10*(7+3)/(7) = 14.3 combos, you can again bet your entire range.
If you keep betting in this 10/7 ratio, all your opponents hand will have EV 0, at showdown, on the river, on the turn, and on the flop.
That means you can bet (10/7)^3 as many combos on the flop as you have value combos.
Don’t we need to be give up on turn and river
.75/[1+(2*.75)]=.3 if we are betting flop 100%, if villain expects a point of
indifference when we bet OTR?
Formulae for number of value combos= (% we check Behind on
each street)^(number of streets bet after flop)-(river value betting frequency)
(10/7)^2-.7= 1.34
Ratio = .7:1.34
I don’t see how (10/7)^3 come about unless we are betting
flop 70% of the time, shouldn’t our betting frequency be 100% OTF?
If we have 3 bluffs OTR for every 7value comobos.
-For our betting range OTT (3bluffs +7Value)/(1-.3)= 14.28
for every combos we bet OTR implies OTT bluff combos which are bet =
14.28-7=7.28 as we are checking back 30% of the time OTR.
-Our betting range OTF relative to OTT should be
14.28/(1-.3)=20.408, Getting number of bluff combos =20.408-7 = 13.408 as we
are checking back 30% of the time OTT.
Ratio of Value: Bluff =7 : 13.408
Who said we are betting flop 100%, how many combos do you start with?
You need to start counting from the river. Of course when you start checking with your air you have given up the pot.
If we start with 7 value combos out of 100 on the flop, we have a flop cbet % of 20.4.
"Ratio of Value: Bluff =7 : 13.408"
So, your total combos are 7 + 13.408 = 20.408
(10/7)^3 = 2.915
2.915 times our valuecombos = 7 * 2.915 = 20.408
;)
Here is the old thread on about the same topic... http://www.runitonce.com/nlhe/theory-question-turn-bluff-combos/ Notice that you are giving on some turn/rivers and you are still indifferent to getting called by bluff catchers.
I believe Sauce said in some other thread that you shouldn´t bet as wide as a bluff as you can in a c-c/c-f only game though, as you get very vulnerable to CRs. Possibly the big one with GT about constructing ranges...
If you have a completely polarized range you shouldn't worry about getting check raised.
Be the first to add a comment