This is my first post here and something is wrong with a hand.

This is action:

Preflop: UTG opens 3bb, Hero call CO with JJ. SB squezze. UTG folds, Hero calls.

Flop: 3c6cQh pot: 34BB
SB bets 10,66BB, Hero calls.

Turn: 6s pot: 55,32BB
SB checks, Hero checks.

River: 2h pot: 55,32BB
SB shoves 77,08BB Hero folds.

There isn't some nice poker theory reason as to why snowie is so far off mdf here, the reason is that poker snowie is not a solver and just approximates reasonable play based on simple hand vs range, 1 street calculations with no attempts to exploit itself.

Snowie is NOT GTO, it is completely exploitable. But it's going to play closer to practical lines. As in: are you really going to call off JJ-TT here because you think your opponent solved for this spot and knows you are following Snowie lines so he jams his whole range? Probably not.

Snowie isn't working backwords and using MDF equations to find out earlier street ranges. It's a forward moving solver that calculates the max EV lines and trains with itself, so the decision trees get narrower and narrower with each street.

It isn't going backwards to say "opponent can exploit jam here and i fold too much, so i need to have 6x Qx here for balance, so i need to call some pre and also call off with JJ-TT". It's already determined that playing those 6xQx hands pre are -ev so there is not point in incorporating them back into the decision tree. And its determined that JJ-TT is -ev against its self learned ranges and lines, so it overfolds here and terminates the decision tree.

Try running this spot in a different solver that claims to be GTO and see what ranges get output and compare them with Snowie, then you will understand it better than I can explain it.

Thanks for all the answers.

I guess my question is: So can we just fold JJ here and it's completely fine? Assuming that the unknown villain will not pay attention to us and he will be using the perfect value/bluff ratio for his sizing in this spot. Or should we try to find equilibrium and defend our range according to MDF?

Even if Wizard is calling more than Snowie here ( 28% ) - it's interesting because we are still folding a lot more than we theoretically should, right?

About MDF, I just calculated the villain's required fold equity. It is 58,2%, so if I understand correctly our MDF should be 58,2% as well.

Or this is all about range advantage and that's the reason for folding so much? But again - if we are SB, cannot we just jam 100% of our range every time?

RaoulFlush you are of course right. I don't know where I got the wrong information about calculating MDF. Thanks for pointing it out.

The naive pot/(pot + bet) calc doesn't even apply in most situations for a few reasons.

For example, to even have the opportunity to bluff you here, he needs to have made a 15bb squeeze into 2 fairly strong ranges with a hand that can be considered a bluff on river. Then even his naked AK combos have some showdown value here so most of his bluff candidates have greater than 0EV in the check line. This means that you need to fold even more than you think for him to be exploiting you by bluffing these hands.

Snowie has way too tight of a range arriving at river here IMO anyway.

MDF is so easy to misuse.

1) MDF is 1 - 58.3% = 41.6% on the river. Villain needs you to fold 58% to break even on a pure bluff.

2) if their river bluffs have equity then you defend less than MDF. Your goal is to make their bluffs indifferent between betting and checking. If their bluffs have value as a check, and you call exactly MDF, then the EV of checking becomes higher than bluffing. Thus you compensate by overfolding a bit to make them indifferent between checking and betting

3) You only call hands that have enough equity to meet pot odds on the river. That's true in theory, and in practice. Solvers don't always adhere to MDF, but they 100% adhere to pot odds on the final bet.