QQ vs Raise Over LImper

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QQ vs Raise Over LImper

BN: $472
SB: $1000
BB: $1062
UTG: $361.60
UTG1: $387
UTG2: $430
LJ: $1103.02
HJ: $1015 (Hero)
CO: $424.70
UTG: Fish 30/8
HJ: 19/15 W$WSF 47 Check/Raise flop 17 (3) ROL 32 (59) 1190hands
Preflop ($15.00) (9 Players)
Hero was dealt Q Q
UTG folds, UTG1 calls $10, UTG2 folds, LJ raises to $40, Hero calls $40, CO folds, BN folds, SB folds, BB folds, UTG1 calls $30
Flop ($135.00) J 8 6 (3 Players)
UTG1 checks, LJ checks, Hero bets $80, UTG1 folds, LJ raises to $200, Hero calls $120
Turn ($535.00) J 8 6 3 (2 Players)
LJ bets $300, Hero calls $300
River ($1135.00) J 8 6 3 T (2 Players)
LJ bets $563.02, and is all in, Hero folds
Final Pot
LJ wins $1132
Somebody is bluffcatching river vs missed FD?

2 Comments

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Lono 12 years, 2 months ago
We don't have the Queen of hearts so we aren't blocking any flush draws. If he's good and we know he's capable of c/r a hand like Ah8c on the flop (and his c/r does seem high for a full ring grinder) then he would be aware that he doesn't have to get you to fold very often to profit off a river bluff. However I do think people give up a lot here and dont fire since not much has changed (he raised preflop in relatively early position to isolate two limpers so im not putting 79 in his range, but it could easily be apart of ours). Some meta info would be helpful to figuring out what to do. My standard would be to fold unless I think he's getting tilted and more willing to jam missed flush draws particularly because they'd seem to make up a greater part of his range. Note that I am assuming villain does not play AJ or KK+ like this.
Adrian Milroy 12 years, 2 months ago
I'm calling this. The betting line, and especially the bet-sizing seems very fishy considering the texture of the board. This is usually indicative of a recreational player playing a set or a big pair, but this player's stats do NOT look recreational. There's no guarantee that you're going to bet this wet flop when chkd to and I can't see him not cbetting a big hand with a clear recreational player UTG1. From his point of view, you can be betting this flop simply by the fact that you are IP so you don't have to have anything. Call and hope he didn't hit Q9hh, JThh or 97hh... Also note that AA/KK together are just as common as AJ there, 12 combos each, so they kind of offset.

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