QQ preflop (170bb deep) facing big 4bet
Posted by ChunkyMonkey
Posted by ChunkyMonkey posted in Low Stakes
QQ preflop (170bb deep) facing big 4bet
UTG: $10.12
MP: $7.39
CO: $10.00
BN: $21.77
SB: $17.67 (Hero)
I don't have reads, I think I had played only a few rounds at this point.
It feels like a typical scenario but I'm not so comfortable playing deep. My thoughts:
- I estimate my FE to be about 10%-15% (purely gut feeling) given the stacks and the 4bet sizing
- I don't expect AK to play this way very often but maybe I'm wrong? So I give him a range of ~{QQ+,AsKs,AhKh}
- This gives me about 25% equity
- This all makes this ~EV = -60bb play to jam.
- If I give him {QQ+, AK} then my equity becomes 40%, making it still EV = -15.2bb play
Even with this wider range, I still need 38.4% fold equity to make it neutral EV jam, which would still be -EV given the rake. So the question is, if jamming sucks, are we really calling the 4bet OOP? If so, it feels odd. Because the pot will be so large that all relevant decisions seem to be preflop here - it would be pretty terrible to set mine (fold if no Q), terrible to check/call down on non K-/A-high boards (who does that without KK+?), and terrible to check/call flop and check/fold turn. So this is pretty hard for me to know what to do.
Follow-up question is the same, but for AK. Postflop with AK feels similar, despite blocking KK+. Maybe suited has more playability given that we can jam & pray if we hit a FD, but the situation is probably not much better regardless.
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