QQ - my hand keeps getting easier and easier to play, but how do i think about my opponents range
Posted by MattS
Posted by MattS posted in Low Stakes
QQ - my hand keeps getting easier and easier to play, but how do i think about my opponents range
BB: $30.00
UTG: $30.65 (Hero)
CO: $21.97
BN: $55.41
Villain is a winning reg who plays a lot of small ball. 21/18 with Flop aggression statistics that are in the mid-20s. Bet sizing is small. WTSD is 30 but tends towards more aggression in 3bet pots. Of note, much more inclined check call with a marginal holding than cbet on the flop. Can check raise
Preflop Against a regular who is positionally aware, I'd guess villain is 3betting between 4 and 7% of hands. At its loosest this looks like 88+. ATs+. KJs+, AQo+, and half of AJo and KQo.
I elect to call. I think it is in the long run a balanced strategy against this opponent to do it about one time in 5.
flop
Good flop for me. I don't think checking back is an option and I'm not super eager to get it in vs a check raising range - I am not sure there's a lot of bluffs here.
I opt to bet small, but what do you think about a larger bet?
turn
My hand gets easier to play - if the villain has a flush I can call a raise and suck out. If the villain has a lesser pair they have draws, and AK/AQ with a single club picked up enough equity to stick around. Easy bet.
Again, I think I sized to small. I don't think I'm losing too much of his range betting larger. Do you agree?
river
Now what am I extracting value from? AQ and pocket jacks, so that's what I sized my bet towards.
Now the question bothering me most
What cards do I get to this board that I can bluff with? Unpaired ace-big with a club? Do those have no showdown value against the villain range?
I feel I can easily fold top pair second kicker against like almost all of my villains here because of this.
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