QQ facing x/r on river
Posted by PokerVagabond
Posted by
PokerVagabond
posted in
Low Stakes
QQ facing x/r on river
Blinds: $0.10/$0.25 (8 Players)
SB: $25.10
BB: $15.13
UTG: $25.00
UTG+1: $33.06
MP: $39.93
MP+1: $31.45
CO: $32.89 (Hero)
BN: $25.35
BB: $15.13
UTG: $25.00
UTG+1: $33.06
MP: $39.93
MP+1: $31.45
CO: $32.89 (Hero)
BN: $25.35
Preflop
($0.35)
Hero is CO with
Q
Q
, , , , ,
Villain is playing 14/10 over 1.5k hands. Folding to 3bet only 44% of the time and has a very very tight 4bet range of 0.8. I think raising here for value as standard. Will be called by 99+, AT/AJs + at a minimum.
Flop
($4.35)
2
9
6
, ,
Checking here could be an option but I can get value from TT/JJ/ random OOP float with Ax hands. Maybe even 77/88 that decide to call a 3bet. Also a tiny bit of protection as 8 cards would kill any action. (Villains fold to cbet is 53)
Turn
($9.95)
2
9
6
J
,
I think betting here would seriously narrow villains range and fold out most that I beat (77/88/TT, random floats) and being called or even raised by hands that crush me (99/JJ in particular, AA/KK that decided not to 4bet)
River
($9.95)
2
9
6
J
9
, , ,
Checking back the river was certainly going through my mind as I struggled to find what hands would call me. In the end I thought that was just too passive and quickly came to the assumption that TT COULD call, random float with AJ could also call, plus hero calling with AK
As soon as the raise came in it seems like a pretty easy fold but would love to know what you think
As soon as the raise came in it seems like a pretty easy fold but would love to know what you think
Final Pot
UTG+1 wins $17.14
Rake is $0.81
Rake is $0.81
Would really like to hear your guys opinions. Sorry if I haven't included information that I should have, this is my first hand history in a very long time and so it will take me a while to improve on what information I should include. I also haven't put this hand into Flopzilla yet and I have just finished my session so I apologise if it's a little flimsy on the detail.
Thanks again.
Loading 18 Comments...
I Think the hand was well played. I will Bet/fold River too.
Thanks buddy!
Yeah I think you won't be able to get more than 2 streets of value here. Also I don't think such a nitty opponent would be bluffing you here.
River check raise at micros are a fold 99% of the time unless you have a solid read on someone being a maniac. I think this is wp
agree
+1
Yeah wish I took this advice last night!
Well played.. c/b river is just losing value imo and folding after to c/r is good as people rarely x/r river as a bluff at these stakes.
Fwiw I think if villain has 78s or some other flop float that bricked he more likely to bluff river when turn went check check than to c/r as bluff.
Yeah same here, I'm not 3betting QQ always, specially vs 14/10 in UTG+1. On such a flop I rather cbet 1/3 pot so he can call me with a wider range and put a bigger second barrel on turn and evaluate River,
Very interesting about the sizing. Its something I haven't adjusted other than the standard 50% 60% 70%
I don't get why everyone is saying that this hand is WP.
You mention villain has 44% total foldto3bet but you didn't mention what his foldto3bet is in the position he is in, also it's not bad to look at your 3bet% in the position you are in vs the position he is in to get an idea what he may think of you since he has 1,5k hands on you too!
I would assume way tighter ranges than you.
I think it's really assumptive that he calls AJs in early position against a 3bet. also 99 is fairly unlikely. Again, he is OOP with 99 and facing a 3bet when he is ip. Low foldto3bet doesn't mean that he doesn't give a f*ck about 3bets, usually I would assume that this is a guy who likes to peel a bit wider vs 3bets IP. Now that's where the foldto3bet in EP comes in. If he had 40% foldto3bet in EP I would go with something like 99+,AJs+,AKo.
But I think it's safer to assume that he plays more optimally eg. something like a range of TT-KK,AQs+,AKo. Notice how players in fullring are reluctant to 4bet hands like AKs and KK, that is due to the fact that vs people who 3bet less than 3% it's more profitable to flatcall AKs and KK vs 3bet.
I'm not a full ring player so my perception of ranges might be slightly off but I liked his line and would have taken same line myself (with larger 3b size and smaller flop size)
Pre is probably better off a flat but a 3bet is surely still +EV.
Also we are 150bb deep and our 3b is small so if villain opens AJs or 99 Pre then he should never be folding these to 3b for that price with these stacks.
What don't you like about the line?
Should have raised bigger pre.
Flop sizing is fine.
Turncheck is fine.
River is a very thin bet, too thin imho, I'd much rather checkback. Since we bet 2/3 Pot on the flop we made villains range pretty strong like 99-KK, I don't think it's a good idea to peel with 2 overs facing this flop sizing so I rule out every nonpaired hand.
Now the only Hand we can get value from is TT on the River but more hands in his range beat us (6combos KK, 1 combo 99, 3 Combos JJ)
What you mentioned about fold to 3bet is a very good point, so good in fact that I went ahead and quickly made a custom popup to make sure I know exactly where villains are folding from. I tend to do it sometimes but hopefully my new popup hud will make it a lot easier for me to check quickly, especially against more competent regs. Thanks for the help buddy, really appreciate it
Ya I agree there were some sizing mistakes in this hand.
However on river I think villain has less better combos than you stated. He hardly flats 3bets with that many KK combos and then checks river after we c/b turn.
Still though river is thin and it's pretty close
What else is there in his range besides 99-KK, I don't see it. It's a mistake to call the flopbet with AK bdfd so he has to have a pair. We could give him 88 but a 14/10 is never gonna call a riverbet with 88.
The interesting part of villains range is 99-KK. Even if we assume that he 4bets KK pre (which would be a mistake against tight 3bettors, we still play against a range of 99-QQ.
Now lets put ourselves in villains shoes. He thinks that his range is 99-QQ which leads to the conclusion that he is simply gonna call QQ to our bet, check/raise 99,JJ sometimes check/raise TT and if her wants to make us indifferent to bluffing maybe he needs to call 1/6th of his TT combos.
Villain doesn't know that we Block 5/6 of his QQ combos so he is less likely to call with his worst bluffcatcher TT. However it's pretty smart to turn TT into a bluff ocassionally and that's why we should checkback QQ on this river. The Jack is a bad card on the turn... if it was a 7 we could maybe bet turn and checkback river.
Why are we checking turn here? I'd fire turn and check back river when the board pairs and the flush draws make it...
First of all a great example and a decent played hand, tho I would have also raised turn and checked river. The same hands that are going to call you on the turn are in my opinion the hands that are going to call you on the river.
If he has a big hand that he wants to slowplay, then with your turn bet he will expect a river bet and you can just check and see what he got hiding. A correct fold tho, with the river reraise it seems a lot like JJ to me.
I play 6max so take my comments with a grain of salt.
-3bet bigger pre. 9bb seems to be the standard, maybe this changes at full ring but I'd assume if anything, it should be larger than smaller.
-Personally I'd bet a little smaller on the flop but I don't see anything really off with your sizing.
-Check turn on a J is good.
-I'm checking the river. You've put a lot of information out which is great and what sticks out to me is villains fold to 3bet and fold to flop Cbet %. Both of these seem pretty high to me and for villain to be hanging on through to the river tells me a river bet is going to be really thin.
As played river is a definite fold.
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