QQ calldown? 10NL
Posted by Alex Geiger
Posted by
Alex Geiger
posted in
Low Stakes
QQ calldown? 10NL
CO: $10.32
BN: $13.89 (Hero)
SB: $19.89
BB: $11.51
UTG: $10.62
HJ: $10.18
BN: $13.89 (Hero)
SB: $19.89
BB: $11.51
UTG: $10.62
HJ: $10.18
UTG: 22/15/5,2 WTSD: 43 Cbet: 54 (226 hands)
Preflop
($0.15)
(5 Players)
Hero was dealt
Q
Q
HJ folds, CO folds, Hero raises to $0.30, SB folds, UTG raises to $0.85, Hero calls $0.65
HJ folds, CO folds, Hero raises to $0.30, SB folds, UTG raises to $0.85, Hero calls $0.65
I felt comfortable to play postflop in position than get it in for a coinflip...
Flop
($1.95)
3
5
8
(2 Players)
UTG bets $1.46,
Hero calls $1.46
When I saw this flop I planned to calldown him.
Turn
($4.87)
7
(2 Players)
UTG bets $3.65,
Hero calls $3.65
River
($12.17)
7
(2 Players)
UTG bets $4.56,
Hero calls $4.56
SPR obliges me to call.
But... what is that hand range We can calculate with?
35877r is not the best board He can 3barrel. He need overcards which hit his perceived range.
Text results appended to pokerstove.txt 516 games 0.000 secs 103,200 games/secBoard: 3c 5s 8d 7h 7cDead: equity win tie pots won pots tied Hand 0: 29.651% 29.07% 00.58% 150 3.00 { 22+, AQs+, 87s, 76s, AQo+ }Hand 1: 70.349% 69.77% 00.58% 360 3.00 { QQ }
I put all pp-s into his range because He could turned into bluff his small pp-s. And I gave him the highest airballs to.
Loading 9 Comments...
Did UTG limp?
On the river, his value range consists of sets/rivered full houses, over pairs and TPTK(?). Given that he 3-bet us pre-flop it's probably 99+. We beat 99, TT, JJ and lose to KK, AA and sets. Is Villain capable of turning missed AK into a 3 barrel bluff? I call since we're getting roughly 4:1 and Villain could be value betting worse or bluffing a decent percentage of the time.
In HM2 hand replayer UTG is in BB position, He posted the big blind. I don't understand these incorrect raise sizes and -sometimes- incorrect positions in posted hands.
You said He 3bet us preflop, and it's probably 99+. However You put sets his range. That's why I said He could bluff 3bet with all pp-s, and this allows us to calculate with sets.
Any read on aggression factor and 3bet vs LP steal?
I'm assuming we are CO vs BB then.
Assuming he's not a total nit postflop it is pretty tough to reason a fold when we don't have stronger than QQ that often at all. That said your standard TAG 10NL player isn't likely to go off on a 3barrel bluff when it is very likely we have an overpair to the board or at least a hand with showdown value. There also aren't many draws that he might want to barrel turn with depending on what his 3bet range looks like.
Overall QQ is just a hand that we're gonna end up calling with. If we want to exploit what we are guessing is a tendency for him to not be bluffing here you should start with the 66,8x,99,TT,possibly JJ that you might get to the river with before doing anything as extreme as fold QQ. Otherwise you end up only calling the very rare times you have a slowplayed set (now boat) or slowplayed KK/AA. This is a miniscule portion of your getting to the river range. I'm definitely not one of the GTO/CardrunnersEV fanatics but even I have a problem with folding virtually all of the time on the river when getting 4:1.
I agree with your assumption about at NL10, he probably doesn't go for a 3barrel bluff very often. I will add another though about that: his WTSD is 43 wich mean he is probably more passive. If villain was bluffing often he shouldn't see the showdown this often. It can be a after 226 hands and a VPIP/PFR spread of 7, low 3bet and low CB I guess we aren't wrong really often if we assume he isn't the kind of player that 3barrels a lot.
So I would be really surprise to see a bluff here.
Now river we need to be good 21.4% so I'm like you and prob call hopping he have all JJ in his range but like hustla I think fold turn may be a bit nitty but probably better.
I probably didn't pay enough attention to his betsizing on the turn actually. It's so big we probably fold some of the hands I mentioned above on the turn I guess. But QQ is such a good hand relative to our range I think folding turn or river is overly nitty. Our sample size is so small that some of those stats will actually change marginally given his actions in this hand.
But lets be honest you don't beat 10NL by making marginal calldowns against TAGs. I'm not gonna find fault with someone who thinks it's better to fold turn.
Agree. In these kind of close spot vs someone who looks like, even over a small sample, he doesn't bluff a lot I don't mind folding 100% of my range turn. Zero chance I think about GTO in 10NL when in almost every spots you can find a villain leak to exploit. Here maybe this particularly villain has a small bluffing range but I think most of the time they are just super value heavy when they bet turn that big. And like if I call turn I have to call almost all rivers (or jsut don't find a fold anymore) I'm better folding the turn.
Why?
Even though a small sample he seems on the tighter side and with the 5% 3b, has nothing other then 99+, AJs+, AKo in his whole 3b range, which decreases significantly when he`s in the BB closing the action.It`s also very debatable weather or not he barrels overcards.
Maybe i`m too nitty, but i`d fold the turn.
yeap, it's a fold on the turn for me too he's being passive and suddenly starts 3bets and barreling so it certainly rings alarm bells
looks good, nh
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