QQ 3 flush mid flop, K river 100nl
Posted by WM2K
Posted by
WM2K
posted in
Low Stakes
QQ 3 flush mid flop, K river 100nl
2 folds, CO raises to $3, 1 fold, WM2K raises to $10, 1 fold, CO calls $7 Flop ($21, 2 players) 
WM2K bets $12, CO calls $12 Turn ($45, 2 players)
WM2K bets $22, CO calls $22 River ($89, 2 players)
WM2K ($55)?Villain is a tight reg running 19/15 21% from the CO. So far he has folded to OOP 3 bets 33% but he 4 bets aggressively (7%so far). Flop is std. Turn I size it so that I can conceivably have a folding range (not that this hand is in it) but then river idk feels like I m turning my hand into a bluff jamming here. AcKx is definitely a hand I would have 2 barreled planning to jam blank rivers. I don t feel he s going have enough Tx hands to hero call us here so c/f? Is this reasoning reasonable?
Loading 10 Comments...
1) I think the board-runout is very favorable for your bluffing-range. You still can "credibly" rep hands like AJ, AQ (mostly with clubs) - and he knows that you have to expect him to fold almost his entire range, which makes this river a pretty awesome bluffing card.
2) Depending on your style and frequencies, you should still have a sufficient bluffing-range on the river, like AcQx, AcJx, 87s etc.
3) You just need ~38% fold equity on your bluff - and he needs only 28% equity to call, so you can afford only 28% bluffs in your range. As the amount of bluffs you can run is dependent on the amount of value-combos you have, you should valuebet as thinly as possible to be able to bluff as much as possible w/o Villain being able to do anything against that. That said, if you take your flush-only-range and maybe AA, AcKx you won´t be able to bluff often enough, so you should definitely add KQ and QQ to your value-range as well.
Now I hope I didn´t mix up the math somewhere, but you get the point. :)
Also I think this player is going to have a very limited amount of hands he can consider for a hero call and I don t have a dynamic with him that would lead me to believe he is ready to make one. T9s,TJs, ATs?, QTs?? and maybe JJ although he has a pretty high 4 bet % so perhaps he plays that for stacks preflop.
There is lots of merit though for jamming and leaving the tough decision to him.
What range of hands do you think he is calling the river with though?
According to the analysis what to do on the river depends on if villain is capable (and with what frequency) of turning made hands into bluffs on the river. In my assumptions the hands that would bluff the river would be: a few JJ, a few ATs, and all 77 and 99 with a club. I discarded T9s, TJs and QTs since I really don't see this player calling a double barrel with these on a 3 flush board even if they did have a gutshot. (The suited hands with clubs is of course calling but those are hands that beat us).
After tweaking the numbers a bit it actually seems like betting the river is better as long as villain bluffs at least more than 5% of the above bluffing hands on the river. Which we have to assume that he does. And this assuming we would always C/F if we check. So betting seems to be best plus we get the added benefit of widening our value range and hence can have a wider bluffing range like BigFishz pointed out.
I have to add that I just started using the program and I'm not that familiar with it yet so please don't take my analysis as the truth. Interested to hear if someone else also uses CREV and if they would get similar results on this hand.
Edit: Think I made some mistakes. Will check through and get back soon...
As for calling with worse the hands I used was again JJ (call 20%, fold 80%) and AT(20%, fold80%).
But more I think of it more I think these assumptions are wrong. Also like I said I'm not sure I used the program right since it's saying he will only have one flush on the river which is KJs which is obviuosly really wrong. So just disregard my first post for now.. Will look at it some more.
Anyway, among some other things I hadn't taken into account that we could actually c/c the river. My intuition was that this was out of the question so I didn't even input that option. After doing so though I got a totally different result. If villain is bluffing only 2% or more with 99,77 (with a club) and ATs then c/c is best. Since we can assume that almost every single reg will bluff at least some time if we check the river the best line is to c/c.
This analysis could still be very wrong. So I'd love it if someone else ran a similar run with CREV.
Be the first to add a comment