QKo river overbet?! 10NL
Posted by Alex Geiger
Posted by
Alex Geiger
posted in
Low Stakes
QKo river overbet?! 10NL
BN: $16.20
SB: $17.69
BB: $11.31
UTG: $10.76 (Hero)
HJ: $10.20
CO: $10.04
SB: $17.69
BB: $11.31
UTG: $10.76 (Hero)
HJ: $10.20
CO: $10.04
CO: 23/16/6,8 F2FCB: 31 TotColdcall: 14 (454 hands)
Preflop
($0.15)
(6 Players)
Hero was dealt
Q
K
Hero raises to $0.30, HJ folds, CO calls $0.30, BN folds, SB folds, BB folds
Hero raises to $0.30, HJ folds, CO calls $0.30, BN folds, SB folds, BB folds
Flop
($0.75)
4
J
J
(2 Players)
Hero bets $0.45,
CO calls $0.45
I didn't have as much information as I give You now, that's why I bet this flop OOP.
I expect him to call with 4x ; 44-TT ; Jx ; Asxx ; flushdraws
I expect him to call with 4x ; 44-TT ; Jx ; Asxx ; flushdraws
Turn
($1.65)
T
(2 Players)
Hero checks,
CO checks
I think He has either showdown value here with 4x or 55-99 and air type hands with/without flushdraw.
River
($1.65)
5
(2 Players)
Subsequently it's a good spot for an overbet. But.... I'm not sure if He's capable to fold hands like 66-99, even 4x, or hands like A5o/A5s.
My perceived range seems 55 ; TT ; nut/2nd nut flush and busted draws / airs.
Any idea??
Thanks!
My perceived range seems 55 ; TT ; nut/2nd nut flush and busted draws / airs.
Any idea??
Thanks!
Loading 11 Comments...
If you overbet your perceived range is : 55, randombluff.
bluffing the turn makes waaayyy more sense than bluffing the river. Why would he fold 66 now?
cause 66 loses to any valuebet
VS this on the flop {JJ-22,AQs-ATs,KJs+,QJs,JTs,T9s,98s,87s,AQo-AJo,KJo+} (11% since he may not call 14% CO vs UTG even with a 9% gap enter his VPIP/PFR) we have 28.4%.
And with villain folding to CB so little I would just check flop. He may call all the Ax, FD, J , pp and I just don't want to multi barrel this spot vs a passive player with almost no equity.
I think this situation is kinda tough on the flop. On one hand, you could represent or have an overpair or AJ or even Ax that is ahead of villain. In fact on the flop, your range is better than villains range probably by far, and he is probably very capable of floating because it really doesn't look like this board hits your range that much.
I just don't know, maybe the solution is to play tighter in EP or, no I don't know.. I think this kinda difficult situation but not that much money involved
I think, by the river, villain knows what you have and it's risky to try to overbet. If you do overbet, then you might have to think about how to not be exploited, it seems like the villain is likely to fold his small PP which is what he has probably 90% of the time, but he may also be capable of calling with them because he may suspect you are trying to steal. And also on mycrostakes, people can play strong hands weird and you never can be sure what someone is holding or how someone is going to play. I think overbet is risky.
"I think, by the river, villain knows what you have ..."
How that? Hero could´ve gone for the x/r on the turn ... and overbetting with our ENTIRE valuerange is the correct play in this spot because it allows us to maximize the amount of bluff combos we can add.
Do You support te overbet idea?
Totally agree. Overbet really makes sense here. And we easily could have butz here like JJ TT. We checked in hope for bet from his floats with overcards
But the hands hero would x/r on turn or overbet on river makes up a very small % of heros range and villain knows it and villain also knows the river overbet is suspicious, if hero overbet to try to get paid by bluff catchers why wouldn't hero make smaller bet to get paid by bluff catchers. So villain gets suspicious of river overbet. And also, I do not have much of an idea of how to play hero's range from the very start of this hand, how to play his range on flop, turn? Have no idea
In my opinion, first like eugine said, the range we would c/r turn isn't super wide. Second, most villain just won't think that we wanted to c/r the turn, they will think "oh he checks the turn so he has no J, no flushes, no full".
So I really don't like to overbet bluff here. But I do like overbet for value with hand we wanted to c/r turn or anything better that QQ.
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