QJo turn into bluff OTR?

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Posted by posted in Low Stakes

QJo turn into bluff OTR?

Blinds: $0.10/$0.25 (6 Players) MP: $25.00
CO: $41.36
BN: $27.28 (Hero)
SB: $24.75
BB: $25.00
UTG: $21.18
Preflop ($0.35) Hero is BN with Q J
UTG folds, MP raises to $0.75, CO folds, Hero raises to $2.25, SB calls $2.15, BB folds, MP folds
Flop ($5.50) 4 J 2
SB checks, Hero checks
Turn ($5.50) 4 J 2 5
SB bets $4.12, Hero calls $4.12
River ($13.74) 4 J 2 5 A
SB checks, Hero checks

36/20 fold to 3b 92 400h
bet vs miss cb 52%/wtsd 17

I have a question about river. Do you think such a villain is going to valuebet his TP always?

9 Comments

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CarDz 8 years, 7 months ago

we have nothing to value here and nothing to bluff, i guess you lost this hand, the hand goes on as the plan, no?

Tomasz K 8 years, 7 months ago

yep true. But I was thinking about bluffing this river, because:
1. I have many Ax in my range.
2. Villain imo should valuebet his own Ax

Im not sure about 2nd point (that's why I posted this hand), but if Im right we have a very sexy bluff OTR :)

Hans Dampf 8 years, 7 months ago

I think he would lead the turn with any FDs (Ax,Kx,Qx), some small pocket pairs above the 5, J8-AJ. When bluffing, which hands do you think he is calling with that are worse than yours or what hands and folding that are better than yours? Think the only hand he is really X/calling with is Ax of clubs and potentially KJ,AJ. So only hands that beat you essentially. So I really do not see the point of bluffing OTR.

Hans Dampf 8 years, 7 months ago

@x55: fair point. completely missed that stat, thx. Given that stat, I would also include TT, QQ,KK in his range (would be interesting to know his 4bet stat then I guess to know if he would 4bet at all or just call the 8% of monsters he holds). A hand like KK would make a lot of sense imo, seeing that he checks to the aggressor otf, stabs with what is likely the best hand ott and checks the otr because he is scared of the A.

Thx for letting me rethink the hand, funny how one stat can change an entire read.

NickHalden 8 years, 7 months ago

I think it's a little bit optimistic 3betting QJo
As played I would take my sd value and check, SB seems fishy, no full stack, coldcall 3bet oop, I don't think he is folding an A here

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