Q9s vs fish lead on river
Posted by Cozacu
Posted by
Cozacu
posted in
Low Stakes
Q9s vs fish lead on river
Blinds: $0.05/$0.10 (6 Players)
UTG: $15.13
MP: $3.89
CO: $10.95
BN: $11.66 (Hero)
SB: $10.82
BB: $10.09
MP: $3.89
CO: $10.95
BN: $11.66 (Hero)
SB: $10.82
BB: $10.09
Villain 60/2 113 hands AF 0.5 wtsd 46
Preflop
($0.15)
Hero is BN with
Q
9
, , , , ,
ISO-ing the fish. nit + unknown in blinds
Flop
($0.95)
A
3
4
,
Don't think villain is folding enough to cbets... and I don't want to fire multiple streets vs his small stack.
Turn
($0.95)
A
3
4
6
, ,
I think delayed cbet is good. I don't think he would ever x twice Ax... probably he is not having a pair... and the cost of our bluff is very cheap (and in my experience 1/2 on turn works quite well vs fish who check twice OOP)
River
($1.85)
A
3
4
6
Q
,
He leads river and I`m kinda confused... I think he never has Ax... he probably is never leading Qx... all really strong hands are probably going to raise me on turn so he could easily have some busted FD that decided to bluff river because of no showdown value.
Looking back at it I would probably just fold river because (=of his passivity and fish don't really randomly donk river that big... more often than not they do it for value. But I couldn't put villain on any decent hand.
1)Do you agree with delayed cbet?
2)Would you call river? If not what do you think is he leading with?
Loading 10 Comments...
A fish often plays a hand kinda strange. So I wouldn't be suprise to see Ax, maybe even 2pair or a set right here. Ofc he also can have a FD, but with the information given about villain it's a fold on the river, I guess.
I would not bet turn. When u're right that villain never checks to u with a hand that beats u, u can checkdown until river and look into 98o type hands. If u bet turn and river is not a Q, what's ur plan? Bluff river against fish? That seems not very good.
If he ends up calling turn, I give up river (non-Q or 9). The purpose of the bet is to make him fold his remaining equity in the hand and possible K highs (that would beat us) for a cheap price.
Fold river and you played it well imo!
I don't mind a del CB, but I would fold R - it's Ax or better most of the time.
Cbet, fish is not floating Ax boards as much as paired or low boards for example, so one and done is much better then a delayed cbet.
I forgot to mention this guys FTcbet was very low... I still believe I`ll get called way to often (A high or not) and I won't really have a good strategy for future streets.
He might just call flop, turn will be check-check... and he leads river and on most run-outs you`ll have no clue if you are getting bluffed on not but given his PF and flop continuing range you'll end vs a decent amount of bluff... and if you are always folding to such plays you might be over-folding river.
Thats why I believe delayed cbet is better vs this specific villain... in general Im facing enough villains that are over-folding to cbets vs which cbet on that board is great = auto-profit with any two cards (+keeping a good cbet %)
Sorry for the long reply.
Well even if his ftcb is like 30% over 110 hands, he entered the pot in 60, faced cbet in 45 and folded 15 which is exactly the fold equity you need with a half pot cb and I'm pretty sure you have more then that on a dry A high flop.
When you check on the other hand, you're pretty much giving up on the pot if you dont improve, because the fish will never fold any pair/draw ott and will lead/ float+donk river a ton.
I think this villain would way more likely float flop donk turn or river than float turn and donk river after he checked twice.
I would also fold the river. I wouldn't be surprised if he has 2pair or a set here. He also has some Ax and you don't even beat all the Qx he could have.
there is really nothing on the flop he can call with besides an A or a gutter I rather just bet there and give up when called even if he likes to stick around that board is really dry, I would bet.
I wouldn't delay cbet, he is prob not folding any pair at this moment, there is one more card he could have 6, and he is not folding, now with a 7 he has a gutter too, 57 if he had that he has a straight but that is really unlikely, he could now have a FD.
Villain is 60/2 if he has an A he is checking that turn but never checking river. I would fold river. close to pot size bet from a 60/2 I would put him on an A, 2P or set. He would probably check everything else behind, this type of player usually doesn't have a bluffing range.
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