Pretty interesting spot wanted to see what other think about the hand
Posted by vanity02
Posted by
vanity02
posted in
Low Stakes
Pretty interesting spot wanted to see what other think about the hand
BN: $100.91 (Hero)
SB: $108.50
BB: $111.79
UTG: $167.23
HJ: $100
CO: $260.06
SB: $108.50
BB: $111.79
UTG: $167.23
HJ: $100
CO: $260.06
Villain is playing about 18/15 Fcb 60 flop x/r 17, do not have a large enough sample for river x/r
from what I've seen so far hes a TAG fish, folding alot in the blinds at 82-100 from bb and sb WWSF 64
3bet 3%
from what I've seen so far hes a TAG fish, folding alot in the blinds at 82-100 from bb and sb WWSF 64
3bet 3%
Preflop
($1.50)
(6 Players)
Hero was dealt
7
7
UTG folds, HJ folds, CO folds, Hero raises to $2, SB folds, BB calls $1
UTG folds, HJ folds, CO folds, Hero raises to $2, SB folds, BB calls $1
Flop
($4.50)
K
7
8
(2 Players)
BB checks,
Hero bets $2.37,
BB calls $2.37
standard cbet
Turn
($9.24)
Q
(2 Players)
BB checks,
Hero checks
Normally I barrel turn to get value from Kx, but for this specific opponent i decided to check back and play my hand passively. Reason being is that his x/r is pretty high and since he did not x/r flop I can pretty much eliminate alot of Axhh and t9s from his range. I decided to give him a chance to bet river so i can raise for value since it seems he is pretty aggressive wwsf is 64 flop raise/x/r stats are both high.
River
($9.24)
6
(2 Players)
BB checks,
Hero bets $4.50,
BB raises to $19
I was expecting a x/f by him, but when he raises what can I get value from by going over the top?
I know this sounds like a stupid question, but would like to know if people would still raise when knowing that villain is bluffing OTR since there is no play after. If villain is never calling when hes caught bluffing vs the off chance that he does have the nuts once every blue.
Loading 19 Comments...
i think you are over-weighting the importance of 17% CH/R stat in your thinking - consider:
- sample size may be a factor (i ran above 20% CH/R for a 30K of hands a while back)
- he may be less likely to CH/R on Kxx
- he may be less likely to CH/R vs you
Any raise after the re raise only will get called by a hand that beats your trips.
You could do a min raise, and see that he will donk call or fold.
But if he re raises again then you might regret not jus calling.
I like to end hands fast move on, but if you want maximum value,
And you think you are ahead you could min raise at best.
He might have rivered 6 for pocket 6 at best if you think you are ahead
maybe :)
just a thought that sample size, history, flop texture could change things - it seemed like you gave a 0% chance to him having a flush draw in his check/call range
as far as averages it depends on stakes but i 100NL i would guess somewhere around 10% is average but you can just look it up in HM2 so you know for sure in the games you play
i don't think 10% is nutted as many if not most regs check raise a polarized range which could mean 5% nuts and 5% draws+air
I don't understand why you are using the x/R flop stat to make assumptions on his turn x/R and river x/R. Use all the stats to get an idea of his game. We know he's tight from the blinds which means that he doesn't adjust against BU steals. He probably plays his cards or he has a lot of tables. His calling range is mainly broadways and PP. He's tight so it's normal that his WWSF is high because he goes to the flop with a stronger range than a lot of regs.
His X/R flop is high but his fold to cbet is very high so we can expect his X/R range to be mainly value hands or draws (78s/fd/straight draw/gutshots). Therefore his X/Calling range is mainly sd (Kx/99/TT/JJ?) because he folds a lot to cbet (no floats) so get value turn. Unless he X/R TP flop or turns mid hands into bluff I don't expect him to raise very often turn.
3 betting the river as played is going to be an overplay. He s unlikely to look you up with much worse and I think your kinda making a crying call tbh vs the river c/r. He s not doing this with 2 pair or worse.
I'd try and find a reason to call before raising on the river. That sizing from a TAG fish looks scary and is either nuts or air. I'd probably look him up depending on my feeling and the fact he could be raising worse for value if he's a fish.
I think 3b river ch/r is burning money though.
Be the first to add a comment