Preflop maths for coldcalling
Posted by Bobby Smith
Posted by
Bobby Smith
posted in
Low Stakes
Preflop maths for coldcalling
Problematic:
What minimum equity does my hand need to have in order to coldcall ?
Notes:
1) Original raiser open 3bb
2) Both player are not in blinds (Thus postflop pot = 7.5bb)
3) I always fold my hand to a squeeze
Terminology:
X = % of times I see the flop = 80% in this case
1-X = % of times the pot is squeezed and I fold preflop = 20% in this case
R = Realized Equity = 100% in this case
E = Equity of my hand versus the range of the open raiser
Formula:
X * (R * E * 7.5bb - 3bb) + (1-X) * (-3bb) = 0
.80 * (1 * E * 7.5bb - 3bb) + (1-.80) * (-3bb) = 0
E = needs to be roughly 67% and higher to profitably cold call
Is this correct ? Am I making a mistake somewhere ? Is this a good method to help establishing preflop coldcall ranges ?
Thanks for helping.
Loading 1 Comments...
Formula is correct, but the result is not. :)
0.8 * (E*7.5 - 3) + 0.2*-3 = 0
6E - 2.4 - 0.6 = 0
6E = 3
E = 0.5
=> Your equity needed with the given figures is 50%:
EV = 0.8 * (0.5 * 7.5 - 3) + (0.2 * -3)
EV = 0.8 * 0.75 - 0.6
EV = 0
Still it´s kind of an unrealistic assumption to set "equity realization" to 100%. Sure, you´re in position, but Villain has the initiative - and the uncapped range. Take 22, it has 52% equity against AK, but how often will you "survive" even the flop? What will you do against a cbet on a QJ9s flop - where you have 70% equity against AK? How often do you think will you see the showdown - to realize your equity?
That said, if you want to construct a stable CC-range, you have to work with different playability (= equity realization) numbers for different hands, i.e.:
AK = 100%
87s = 75%
54s = 65%
22 = 40%
Be the first to add a comment